cheltenham day two 2015

well it can't get any worse than today that much i do know! mullins hot pot after hot pot going in & a new pair of pants where needed after UDS demolished the arkle field after laying the first two jollys & things had to pick up. the druids nephew was a welcome winner & then it was back to the lay plan.. only to watch faugheen play with them in the champion & bound up the hill in effortless fashion & it was time to dispense with the underpants & just replace them with a nappy at this stage!! so what to do..lay annie for the sweep as planned? it was a case of in for a penny in for a pound & rounding the home turn the nappy was pretty much full to bursting until the gambling gods intervened and what happened at the last well we all know the answer to that. i believe though over a season your luck will even itself out & theres plenty ive backed that have fell at the last with the race at there mercy as annie had today. i'm the first to hold my hands up & admit i got the day completely wrong though & with both ruby & annie getting up safely to fight another day i was quite happy to count my minimal profit on the day & count myself a very lucky boy. onto tomorrow & its champion chase day so thats where we'll kick off..


3.20 cheltenham 2m Queen mother champion chase (Grade 1)

this is basically the clash that we wanted to see last year the sire against the sprinter when both at the peak of there powers but alas it never happened. both had questions to answer after reappearances and sire de grugy sort of went some way to repairing his reputation when winning a mediocre handicap which i find amazing that timeform rate as probably the best 2m run by a chaser this season i seen one of theres people say on at the races recently. he beat two pretty exposed nine & ten year olds last time & whilst he ran off a mark of 172 that day thats all well and good provided the horses he ran against also ran to there marks which i very much doubt considering grey golds penultimate run was when stone last behind dodging bullets & sprinter sacre in the clarence house. so onto dodging bullets whos form in the spring (march/april) reads 4-6-9-7 & after three tries at the festival is yet to register a place, cant have him at all. next up is the mullins festival specialist champagne fever who strangely i see people say should have won the arkle..why? was beaten by a better horse on the day for me, ok that horse is a lunatic but fever jumped fine, had the run of the race so not really sure what else could have gone in his favour to be honest & wether you like it or not the stat is there that hes had four stabs at G1 company over fences on his dancecard & has yet to win but has a couple of comfortable victories in G2 company which tends me to swing towards he might be just short of taking a seat at the top table. now onto probably the horse that has excited me as near to how frankel made me feel in his pomp in the shape of sprinter sacre. i see alot of what i class as good judges saying he's finished after one comeback run & it surprises me to be honest. one thing that i will conceed is that being a french bred he isn't going to get better with age thats for sure, they tend to peak early & finish early where as english & irish bred horses tend to get better with age so thats one negative, but not a game changing one. now you have to bare in mind that this is a horse that they basically had to re-write the handicap for because he was that good & an official BHA rating of 188 is something we wont see for a very long time. back in his heyday this horse had muscles on his earlobes & muscles on top of his muscles he looked that well on every occasion & simply on his come back he didnt but after a year off he wasn't ever going to be knocked about & bazza G was far from hard on him & quite simply racing needs champions & i hope & prey he comes there swinging off the bridle round the bend & the crowd gasp at one of his athletic leaps at the second last as he puts the peasants to the sword but alas thats a dream at the moment but the 3/1 may look massive around half past three tomorrow. mr mole is a handicapper trying to make the step up & his G2 win doesn't read great taking into the sire de grugy factor & him not running his race. its taken a while but my fancy for the race is the nicky richards trained simply ned. never out of the first three in nine completed chase starts he ran a cracker in a Grade one over in ireland on unsuitable ground last time out & will be seen to far better effect tomorrows quicker surface. on his penultimate start he had dodging bullets a head behind in third in the shloer chase here at cheltenham so the course should have no fears & hes also been given a short break to freshen him up as hes won three from four completed starts on the back of a 60+ day break. with alot of this field with far more questions than answers against there name he looks to be the value play to me.

simply ned e/w @ 20/1 available with paddy power

cheltenham day one 2015

well it's finally here! pretty much what the whole NH season revolves around is the next four days in the cotswolds. thousands will make the pilgrimage.. there will be tears, laughter and the odd pint of guiness  sunk i'd imagine from our friends across the irish sea but as long as they all come home safe & sound to battle another day i think every race fan will settle for that outcome. i'm going to concentrate on the four Grade one's tomorrow & quite simply..i'm getting after these supposed mullins "good things" like a sniper in the trees!! here are my thoughts..


1.30 cheltenham Supreme Novices hurdle 2m 110y (Grade 1)

ok straight off the bat this douvan i have to take on simply for a horse that has beaten trees hes a ridiculous price. fair enough he has been visually impressive like all these hot pots have & thats why they've been backed accordingly but if i ran round the block against an 85 year old man the chances are i'd look pretty impressive...let me run against a man whos semi fit & i'll be blowing like that poxy at the races express we keep seeing on those annoying adverts! all hes won is a G2 so far & the horse in third that day has come out & been spanked nearly 20 lengths in a mickey mouse non graded event. the one thing backers can cling to is that on debut he beat sizing john who came out & won a G1 but the favourite fell & the other mullins horse was pulled up which meant he beat sub lieutenant of sandra hughes' who was subsequently spanked 30 lengths by nichols canyon who was the favourite that fell in that race. the form just isnt very good in my opinion so that then brings us to what to back. i'll be laying douvan for the sweep as my main play as theres plenty running for me. the one i'm taken by is qewy of john fergusons. he was a decent tool on the flat rated 107 at peak following a listed race success for john oxx & whilst hes the most inexperienced over timber in the field he was very impressive beating a decent tool last time & looks fair e/w value to me.


2.05 cheltenham Arkle challenge trophy chase 2m (Grade 1)

now this favourite i will be laying purely as i dont think any horse should be odds on in a championship novice event at cheltenham on his first attempt there but that said of the four mullins hot pots this is probably the most likely winner of the four. there are plenty of reasons to get him beat though as his race comments all read "made all" and pretty much hes had an uncontested lead in every race, thats not going to happen tomorrow. i was in a similiar camp with this one as i was with douvan..that was until his last run when he slammed clarcam giving him weight..and he did it very effortlessly as well. he may well be the best horse in the race but a small lay none the less. so onto what to back and with UDS being so short it does open up some e/w value & again i think it could well be the ferguson horse this time three kingdoms. vibrato valtat is the second favourite & on recent runs you'd have to say he deserves his place there. three kingdoms however gave vibrato 10lb's & beat him over hurdles (completely different sphere i know) and only has half a length to find on there running in the wayward lad at kempton at christmas yet is four times the price? what i did like though is his last run. he made a complete hash of three out yet battled back like a lion to get the better of solar impulse with tony mccoy in the saddle for the first time & it could well be that he suits the horse & replacing brian hughes is mccoy worth half a length at the prices? i'd say yes & he'll be my e/w play in the race.


3.20 cheltenham Champion hurdle 2m 110y (Grade 1)

right then now it gets juicy!! right i'll ask you a very simple & straight forward question.. what price would the best horse faugheen has beaten be in tomorrows champion market? around 33's at shortest i reckon but again we're back to the being visually impressive scenario & unless your visually impared you would have to say hes been very impressive. my issue with him is i dont think 2m is his best trip, he can get away with it quality horses always will but at championship pace its a different ball game & he goes against some real battle hardened sorts here. add into that his best piece of form is arguably in last seasons neptune (over 2m 5f) where the runner up has yet to reappear the third has again yet to come out & the fourth horse has since managed a mind blowing second place off a mark of 141 in a novices handicap chase... not exactly earth shattering form and even his most ardent supporters have to agree with that. then theres the record of christmas hurdle winners in the champion, certainly not great by any stretch of the imagination and all of a sudden the case against him is growing. i know a few bookies that have the new one as a big loser in there books and thats a tough call now for me i must admit. last years winner jezki i'd of been all over if geraghty was on board & maybe switched the headgear around & dropped a pair of blinkers on him as the first time hood worked a treat in last years race & horses can get used to them. last years favourite hurricane fly & twice winner of the race in the past in 2011 & 2013 is quite literally an enigma & would bring the house down if he actually got home in front & when you consider the only time hes been out of the first three is when fourth in last years champion it just goes to show how strong a race this is. the old boy will get found out i'm sure but if there is a downpour of biblical proportions i wouldn't discount him running a place. all told its a difficult race for e/w betting with the three main protagonists all under 5/1 in the market so i'll just lay faugheen for the sweep..let battle commence!!!


4.00 cheltenham Mares hurdle 2m 4f (Grade 1)

i'm dubious as to how good a run annie's was in last years world hurdle but back against her own sex its hard to see past her. she has had an injury though & i'd be a layer rather than a backer. the one thing annie does do though is open up a bit of e/w value & i'd be tempted to have a small e/w play on the bottom mare the pirates queen. shes looked far better since stepped up in trip & theres a few here that have close form lines including bitofapuzzle & caroles spirit but again i liked the way this one battled to the line last time.


well my day revolves around getting the big four beat, douvan being the main one followed by faugheen & if i can get them beat then it will be pound seat johnny on day one & i'll take that. i'll play a small e/w patent on the following & see if the gods are looking down on me..


qewy 1.30 @ 12/1 bet365

three kingdoms 2.05 @ 25/1 bet365

the pirates queen 4.00 @ 20/1 bet365


please remember these are just my thoughts & my thoughts alone on tomorrows racing i'm not recommending you follow me or back/lay anything i've stated. you are all grown men/women & are more than capable of making your own decisions.


regards
ian

10/9/2014

Evening sportsfans!! tomorrow sees the start of the leger festival so hopefully i can dig out a few winners for us. firstly i have to say keep stakes to a minimum, looks a decent quality card but with the two main races being confined to fillies & mares they really are the quickest way to the poor house & you'll have to walk a long way to find a wealthy man that ever trusted a woman with his cash!!


2.10 doncaster (sceptre stakes G3 7f)

braggings the obvious starting point having hacked up in a handicap last time but this is a different ball game altogether although there are far more with questions against there names than answers here to be really honest. lucky kristale is a dual G2 winner but there has to be a serious question as to.. 1) wether shes trained on & 2) does she stay further than 6f without the aid of a jet plane? i think the answer to both is no so i wouldnt bother with that one & theres also frankels little sister whos pretty much in the same boat regards the trip although she does get a 3lb pull woth j wonder for just over a length on there running at newbury so discounted, but not as easily. plenty of others that would be worthy of a mention but my lucky pin has fallen on KIYOSHI of charlie hills. looked a superstar last year when winning the albany but went via ascot high street in the final furlong that day so clearly can have her own ideas about the game but the key could well be the application of cheekpieces for the first time tomorrow & she really has been highly tried with half of her eight lifetime start being in G1 company & even when dropped into listed company she bumped into no other than euro charlene who went on to win the G1 beverley D stakes in america, hows your luck!! she has valid excuses this term with the ground being against her in the falmouth & last time out in france & i'm not convinced she truly stays a mile so 7f on a decent surface should suit her down to the ground & looks a solid e/w play at around 10/1 with most firms.

2.40 doncaster (park hill stakes G2 1m 6f)

you'll have to go along way to find a a cheaper G2 than this i know that much & someones going to grab some cheap black type thats for sure. most have it to prove at the trip but seal of approval heads the market & is a G1 winner but dear lord that fillies & mares race on champions day that day was as bad as a G1 gets & connections might rue not whisking her straight off to the paddocks & cashing in. venus de milo could be the one to improve most from the step up in trip but the run last time in the yorkshire oaks was far to bad to be true so has it all to prove here. groovejet wouldn't be the worst e/w bet in the world at a daft price as she will be plodding on when the others are doing there nails & looking in the mirror when they've had enough in the final couple of furlongs but i'm going to take a chance on MOMENT IN TIME. she was very progressive last year winning a G3 & culminating in a third placing in the G1 E.P. taylor stakes at woodbine before heading off to meydan in the early part of the year but it didnt really work out for her & came back with a bit of a hangover from there & wasn't the same horse on her return which isn't unusual for some horses as they just dont take to the change in climate & it takes them time to recover. she has looked like shes been coming back to herself on her last couple of runs though & was certainly not disgraced when fourth last time out in the american st leger. its a speculative punt but at around 14/1 one which i think worth it.

kiyoshi e/w (10/1 widely available)

moment in time e/w (14's available in places but plenty of 12/1)

best of luck if you play.

regards
ian

3/9/2014

Evening sportsfans!! well what a return to blogging we made on sunday evening with the sole selection generalyse obliging at a tasty 7/1. had a bit of time spare this evening with the england game being about as interesting as listening to the ex-wife droan on about..well i dont really know as i switch off after a couple of seconds..seems to be my default setting!lol lets see if we can find a couple of winners tomorrow...

7.10 wolves

a tricky race at first glance but bogsnog could be the value here, this is his grade & his C&D (two from two in 7f C5 races here) & comes here a well handicapped horse. the key to him is wether he gets an easy lead & he could well do that here. the other obvious pace in the race is wotalad but hes drawn on the outside of bogsnog so with a half decent break all the bog needs to do is hold his position early to force the other wide enough to force him to drop in unless the jockey on him completely loses his head & tries to take us on round the outside of the first bend but i really cant see it as it would be tactical suicide. at around 16/1 currently he looks excellent value to add to his impressive course record. on this new tapeta surface you ideally want horses that have form on southwells fibresand & whilst he hasn't raced there his sire moss vale has a decent record there so he should be ok.

8.40 wolves

another trappy contest with some old favourites but red cape looks to have a decent shout to me. he falls to his last winning mark over C&D when beating tyfos who has won & run with great credit since so the form has a very solid look about it. whilst he has run with credit recently on turf hes far better on an artificial surface & even his last run on the a/w since his win behind come on dave has been franked since with that one rattling up a couple of victories recently & this really isn't a strong race by any means.

e/w bogsnog 16/1 paddy power

e/w red cape 10/1 paddy power

e/w double

remember you can find my selections daily by following @teamformratings & getting involved in there e-mail service.

many thanks for taking the time to read my blog & as always good luck with whatever you decide for your money tomorrow.

regards
ian

31/8/2014

Evenings sportsfans!! its been a while but certainly good to be back! as most of you will know for the last 6 months or so i have been tipping via nialls blog at niallers123.com which i have thoroughly enjoyed & had some good laughs with the lads on there but nialls now going off to do his masters degree & i wish him well in all his future endeavours. i am also the man behind @teamformratings along with @ptmahon & selections will be on there daily when time doesn't permit me to blog & the email service consists of the days handicap ratings from our private handicap along with both system & advised bets so be sure to give them a follow. onto pressing matters & firstly i think its about time the #stealingaliving league made a long awaited return, plenty out there at it so lets start capturing them again!! also no doubt many are reading looking for a winner or two & hopefully we can find a couple of those as well. not the greatest days racing tomorrow i must admit although part of me is glad the evening racing is now slowing down as when theres five & six meetings a day of mediocre stuff its perilous to say the least. like i say theres not alot to get excited about tomorrow but i would be tempted to have an each way play on..

GENERALYSE 5.40 leicester

who drops to a winning mark and has C&D form which is useful at a track like leicester as its alot more undulating than people think. top offer could be a danger depending on how much ability he retains & for a horse that ran in camelots guineas it really is a case of how far the mighty have fallen. smokethatthunders is another one that could come under consideration but i cant help but feel hes a better horse on an artificial surface but at around 7/1 generalyse looks a solid e/w punt & also comes out top on the #teamform ratings. hopefully we can return with a winner!!

onto the #stealingaliving league & some old favourites mixed with a few new entries but as always any suggestions you may have fire them in during the week for next sundays edition!


10. my dustbin men

seriously lads you've not been for two & a half weeks..words will be had upon your return.

9. remy

how do you fail a medical at one club then fly through one at another? not to sure how that works & i dont like the bellend anyway..

8. anyone with the title "director of football"

what do these people actually do? most of them couldnt direct f**king traffic in all honesty..

7. epsoms flagman

well..he may as well be stealing a living as clearly no one takes any notice of him!

6. rishi persad

well it just wouldnt be the #stealingaliving league without the royalty that is rishi!

5. winker watson

whisked off to stud at the end of his 2yo career..and so far hes managed to sire the winner of a seller..absolutely awful sire who should be banned from inpreganting any more mares instantly.

4. harry herbert

highclere cock..simple as that. how do you get off the list harry? run that boat telescope over the right trip!

3. clare balding

still flits from channel to channel as she pleases & her channel 4 racing contract must have more holes than a culinder to be honest.

2. ashley young

goes down more often than a kings cross hooker.

1. LOUIS VAN GAAL

arise sir louis! came in as the saviour of manchester united & the new "chosen one"..however united are still yet to claim a win & with being dumped out of the egg cup in midweek unfortunatley louis you are.. STEALING A LIVING my friend!!


i fully anticipate an all out assault so when ive posted this on twitter i think i'll take cover for the evening!!lol many thanks for taking the time to read my blog & have a good end to your weekend.

regards
ian

30/4/2014

#teamform daily handicap ratings are

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23/4/2014

anyone wishing to recieve the days full rated

a/w & turf flat cards along

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