31/7/2013

Evening sportsfans!! the lay landed on dawn approach gave me a profitable day but no joy with the back selections im afraid & glorious goodwood is proving a tad difficult at the minute but hopefully a new month can see the end of the mini slump of the last few days however we do finish the month on a profit of 68pts to our advised bets.

2pts e/w ALTANO 3.15 goodwood (nap) 7/1 skybet

last years german st leger winner brings G1 form to the table & will be far happier on this easier surface than when just over 3l behind estimate in the ascot gold cup. he only has half a length to find with colour vision on there running there & the drop back to two miles looks perfect for him as the 2m4f at ascot may have stretched him a bit i think.

1pt e/w CRUCK REALTA 2.15 goodwood (nb) 25/1

i cant believe the price of this one if i'm honest, she was second to tha'ir as a juvenile at royal ascot & her second behind winsili at newbury in may is by far the best form on offer here in my opinion. she gets a six pound pull with tha'ir on there ascot run & she won't mind the underfoot conditions either.

0.5pt e/w double

for those that are that way inclined i will also be having a short price double on..

FIGURE OF SPEECH 2.45 6/4

ELIK 3.45 5/2

1pt win double

the double pays around 8/1 ish & i cant really see either horse beaten tomorrow & i may also be going in heavy on a single bet on ELIK as with the 3yo weight allowance she looks excetionally well treated by the race conditions & the step up in trip will bring about nothing but improvement.

now onto the midweek update of the stealing a living league & the boy rishi persad has gate crashed the party at the top of the table after today ending up doing an impression of tom cruise in cocktail on channel 4 racing but sundays leader charlie appleby fought right to the death to cling on to top spot when he clearly gave a pre-scripted interview on C4 when it was obvious he wasn't allowed to mention the still unsighted mahmood al zarooni. the mr magoo of newmarket did however saddle a group winner in the shape of cap o' rushes so he was just pipped on the line by persad.

full update..

10. emma spencer (C4 racing pundit)
re-enters the top 10 after being part of the persad cocktail fiasco.

9. jason weaver (resident ATR tipster)
i just don't like the bloke if i'm honest...

8. derek thompson (all round idiot & general baffoon)
maintains his place following his confusion in advising that a filly have the snip to connections.

7. simon mapletoft (slicker than the average racing uk presenter)
slick simon drops two places following some semi decent efforts recently.

6. angus gold (sheikh hamdans racing manager)
more inept placing from the shadwell team sees angus climb a place from sunday.

5. MAZ (who knows)
who cares??

4. hope powell (womens national football coach)
former number one whos still in there clinging onto past glories & a fat salary thanks to a ridiculously long contract handed to her by the FA.

3. simon crisford (we're still yet to find out his job title)
starting to run out of expletives for the man behind the godolphin mess..

2. charlie appleby (MAZ's former assistant...hmmmm...)
newmarkets mr magoo looked like a puppet on a string in todays interview & only a group winner has kept him off top spot.

1. rishi persad (complete toss pot)
our old friend persad comes straight back in at the top following the cocktail fiasco at goodwood today..allied with the fact on saturday he told us he'd spoken to trainer dean ivory..yet failed to reveal what he said then watched tropics win! and for those reasons young rishi.. you are quite literally.. stealing a living my friend!

many thanks for following, the next #stealingaliving update will be on sunday evening so if you have any nominiations please tweet me with the hashtag #stealingaliving.

regards
ian

30/7/2013

Evening sportsfans!! little joy today & very disappointing if i'm honest & i really was expecting alot more than that i must admit. tomorrow sees us lock horns with our old foe dawn approach.. here are my thoughts..

3.05 GOODWOOD 1m Group 1 Sussex Stakes

WE'RE TAKING HIM ON!! is the simple answer & i'll be laying win & place and heres why.. whilst we can argue all day long wether toronado was unlucky in defeat at ascot its a debate that will eventually have no outcome, simple as that because we will never know the answer to what would have happened without the interference & we cant re-write history but what we can do is try & predict the future! lets move slightly leftfield & analyse his actual form in the book.. firstly the 2000 guineas.. ok garswood has come out & won a G2 today but he didn't stay in the guineas & also would of hated the ground so that form is dubious.. the only other two winners (dawn approach apart) to come out of the race are a newbury maiden & a C2 handicap at chester... not exactly outstanding.. so we'll look at the st james' palace stakes.. his main rival that day was seen to be magician but he got stuck out wide & used up far to much energy early on to get involved which left it a duel between him & toronado.. and we know how that ended up.. BUT! ever since i have watched toronado run i have been convinced he will be a far better animal with some give underfoot.. the ground was rock hard in the guineas & he hated it..there was slightly more give at ascot which is why i think he got closer & tomorrow will be the softest hes come across (on current reading but conditions are drying all the time) & i think with any rain he will get the measure of jim bolgers charge. however my selection in the race is the aiden o'brien trained declaration of war, which i know may surprise a few people given the weight for age allowance to take into account but quite simply he brings by far the best form to the table in my opinion. his victory in the queen anne stakes is turning out to be one of the hottest races at the meeting with the likes of elusive kate (dual G1 winner since) aljamaaheer (G2 winner since) in behind that day. he then ran second to al kazeem in the eclipse & thats top drawer stuff, simple as that although i dont think he fully stays the 1m2f trip so the return to a mile is just the job & hes also versatile regards the ground. the big question has to be though wether he can give 8lbs to the 3yo's but bare in mind hes only had seven lifetime starts..two less than dawn approach so he could well have alot more to come. i have dawn approach's last two victories @ 116 (ascot) & 112 (guineas) & i have declaration of wars last two runs @ 122 (ascot) & 120 (sandown) so there pretty much level pegging with the weight allowance but with the o'brien runner still open to more i'm going with him to prevail over the younger generation tomorrow. now thats the form side of it out of the way we come to the horses mental state..the theorists about tactics in the derby have long since come & gone, he didn't stay, plain & simple but what did attribute greatly to him not staying was him pulling so hard & i actually have a seperate theory about this. on all of his previous starts he was basically able to jump & run, simple. at epsom he was never able to get into any kind of stride pattern & it had nothing to do with anybodys tactics he just didn't like going up & down the cambers in my opinion and if i'm right i think the same thing could quite well happen tomorrow & if he shows any signs of petulance he'll get blown apart as this track doesn't take any prisoners i can assure you & they are turning for alot of the journey here. i know you can argue that ascot was on the round course but its very flat there & there was a split second there when he tossed his head about after a couple of furlongs & i'm sure he'll do it again in the future...and with a bit of luck hopefully it will be tomorrow!

LAY: Dawn Approach

BACK: Declaration of war (nap)

the handicaps look very difficult to crack tomorrow but i'll be making a start shortly & hopefully will have a few more selections up later this evening..

here are tomorrows full advised bets..

2pts win DECLARATION OF WAR (nap) 5/1 paddy power

1pt win SECRET NUMBER (nb) 11/2 stan james

1pt e/w BROCKWELL 12/1 

win doubles & e/w treble (2pts in total)

brockwell looks like he'll relish every yard of this trip & the more rain the better for him & his third in the northumberland plate is pretty much the best form on offer here. secret number was finishing like the proverbial train at ascot over 1m2f & hes another who will relish every yard of this extra trip tomorrow. whilst excess knowledge ran a cracker on his seasonal debut he was in reciept of lumps of weight in a listed contest.. the step up to G3 against his own age group will be a completly different ball game here.

many thanks for following..

regards
ian

29/7/2013

Evening sportsfans!! crash bang wallop today folks!! firstly the nap goes in @ a tasty 7/1 advised last night closely followed by reginald claude advised @ 4/1!! we then got the nb placed @ 16/1 to give us a decent return on the e/w lucky 15 & we now sit on a very tidy 85pt profit to advised bets this month! if we can have a decent glorious goodwood the triple figure target could well still be smashed! speaking of goodwood its the latest in the summer festivals that is now upon us & we have previewed three of the races on the opening day...

2pts e/w BLUE SURF 1.55 goodwood (nap) 8/1 stan james

a trappy little contest to kick the meeting off but course form is imperative here & horses either take to the place or they don't in my opinion. if they do they tend to run well time after time there & this fella drops right into that bracket. i really hope the penny has dropped with connections as he clearly doesn't stay 1m4f on a plane & his record in handicaps at upto 1m2f reads.. 1-3-1-3-1-4. his record over C&D has seen him return a win & a place and the only two horses to beat him at goodwood over a mile plus are grandeur (G1 winner in the states & now rated 115) & pattern race performer chill the kite (now rated 108). i think the grounds pretty much perfect for him & pat dobbs is superb around here in my opinion & i'm expecting a massive run tomorrow. the joker in the pack has to be the haggis horse fast or free but all his forms on ground with give so it may pay to keep an eye on the weather but even so i cant have him on the back of a 404 day absence if i'm honest. fennel bay could be interesting & mark johnston has an unbelievable strike rate at this meeting but i cant help but feel the handicaper has his measure

1pt e/w SIR GRAHAM WADE 3.40 goodwood (nb) 8/1 coral

slightly in danger of becoming a cliff horse of mine but tomorrow surely has to be the day for him. a two pound drop in the handicap finally sees him drop a pound below his last win & he trounced a decent field at this meeting last year when galloping all the way to the line.hes had some respectable if not outstanding efforts in pattern company most notably when just over a length behind the very smart stayer biographer. i believe hes a far better horse on decent ground & with the first time blinkers fitted this really is the last throw off the dice where me & him are concerned as everything looks set for a massive run. the horse that worries me is cavaleiro as he finished in front of our selection last time out on his seasonal debut but he comes here on the back of an absence but a saver would be advised at his current odds of around 25/1 & the only thing that swung it in sir grahams favour was the fact we know he acts on the course. harris tweed is another at a price that could well run a big race if theres any rain.

1pt e/w LIBRANNO 3.05 goodwood 28/1 bet365

this is another who loves it here & his course record reads 1-4-1-2. you can scrub three of his last five runs as hes another that doesn't stay a mile on a bus but more importantly hes been dropped to listed and G3 level in between G1's this season meaning hes had to carry penalties in those races but back in a G2 with no penalties to carry on his favourite track he look superb value to me. if we get significant overnight rain red jazz would be of interest as hes a solid group race performer does need conditions in his favour. producer beat aljamaaheer comfortably at leicester & i cant see any reason for him to turn the form around & i think hes also better over a mile but at the odds i think libranno represents massive value to me.

e/w trixie (2pts in total)

a top class meeting in store for the week ahead & we will have previews every evening along with the now infamous #stealingaliving league update on wednesday evening so i hope the C4 team are on the ball or there could be some midweek gate crashing of the top 10 i think!!! :-) this week seen my blog reach 100,000 views for the time that ive been doing it & i do find it amazing that so many people are actually interested in my ramblings & what i have to say!!lol we've had readers in north america, canada, norway, cuba & new zealand this past week giving the blog a real international feel i must admit. i did have a look at galway today but irish racing really isn't my forte & i just couldn't get a handle on the form at all & i suppose thats two hours of my life i wont get back but fair play to anyone that did find a few winners there as i may as well read chinese writing for all the sense the irish form made to me to be perfectly honest. many thanks for taking the time to read my blog & as always i wish you the best of luck with whatever you decide for your money tomorrow & happy punting guys!! :-)

regards
ian

28/7/2013

Evening sportsfans!! well it would be easy for me to sit here & say the ground wasn't as soft as i thought blah blah blah but in all fairness todays selections where crap.. and performed accordingly! back on the quest for winners though whilst it isn't the best racing at wolverhampton tomorrow at least theres no worries about wether there is any rain unlike at ayr where amazingly i see there holding a precautionary inspection tomorrow! i've picked out an e/w lucky 15 on four that have fallen to/past there last winning marks & should give us a run for our money..

FATHSTA 4.15 wolves (nap) 7/1 ladbrokes

SPINNING RIDGE 2.45 wolves (nb) 12/1 bet365

REGINALD CLAUDE 3.45 wolves 4/1 bet365

BLAZING DESERT 4.45 wolves 14/1 bet365

e/w lucky 15 (4 pts in total)

now onto what i'm sure you've all been waiting for & its this weeks #stealingaliving league top 10!! we have a couple dropping out in the form of emma spencer (actually did a good job on C4 racing this week) & the sire hawk wing who managed to sire a winner this week! david redvers has also dropped out of this weeks top 10 after he did a very good P.R. job when interviewed in the paddock at ascot & actually came across as a decent chap who can take a joke after being quizzed about the horse redvers being named after him. its also all change at the top following the BHA's recent reports on the godolphin doping scandal.. here is the full run down..

10. harry herbert (highclere racing guru)
whilst still stealing a living on old eatonian contacts old sherbert dip wasnt jumping around after telescopes win he actually kept a low profile which is very unlike him & i didnt even see him at the course on the day of the race... is he ill??

9. joe kinnear (director of football somewhere)
a new entry for the man whocouldn't direct traffic never mind a premiership football club.

8. jason weaver (small man on ATR)
still struggling to tip a wheelbarrow but he can take comfort in the fact that alex hammond has managed to clamber here way out of the top 10 so theres hope for the little fella yet.

7. angus gold (sheikh hamdans racing manager & all round arse licker) a few winners have come from the shadwell banner this week so angus gets a slight reprieve dropping from last weeks number three.

6. derek thompson (all round idiot & general baffoon)
the description says it all about a man who described a filly as needing the snip this week.

5. simon mapletoft (general greaseball)
no change at five this week for quite possibly the slimiest man on your television screen.

4. hope powell (now a disgrace to womens football)
the women who just will not budge from her post after the worse run of results in the womens national game history. very lucky the godolphin fiasco has occured or she could of been in for a bit of a brian adams stint in the top spot!

3. mahmood al zarooni (godolphin ghost)
clearly been paid off to take the bullet for the whole sorry mess & with possibly around 10 years salary in his back bin as compensation his job within the godolphin organisation has simply been changed from trainer to ghost as it seems like he now wears an invisibility cloak as he hasnt been sighted since.

2. simon crisford (still no one is actually sure of his job title)
been greasing palms for fun at the BHA this week in order to keep sheikh mo away from the bad press.

1. charlie appleby (new godolphin trainer)
so MAZ's assistant takes over the yard.. and we are led to believe he had absolutly NO IDEA what was going on?? if this is the case the man clearly has the observational skills of the legendary cartoon character mr magoo! yet he gets put in charge of a multi million pound operation?? and for that reason charlie... you are quite literally.. STEALING A LIVING! 

a late surge from the godolphin team in the later part of the week managed to seal the top three spots for the boys in blue following the disclosure of the BHA's report on the doping scandal at malton paddocks. an absolute disgrace is the only way i can describe the whole affair & for me it is simple.. the BHA dont want to go head to head with sheikh mohammed, simple as that. there scared of a newmarket without godolphin but at what cost? a sport without integrity is a sport on decline.. but i really hope i'm wrong..

many thanks for following..

regards
ian

27/7/2013

Evening sportsfans!! well we landed our NB selection @ a tasty 14/1 but unfortunatly we couldn't find anything to go with it which was quite disappointing if i'm honest but none the less seen us with another 9 point gain on our advised bets & as we sit on a profit of 89 for the month the triple figure target is now in touching distance!! hopefully tomorrow can see us crash through our target..

**WARNING**

i have based my selections on there being overnight rain in the pontefract area & that there will be some give in the ground. anyone placing there hard earned money down please check going reports in the morning.

2pts e/w ORBIT THE MOON 4.40 pontefract (nap) 16/1 bet365

last years winner comes here on the same mark & with a dream draw on the rail graham lee can follow the golden highway home. at first sight you may think the easy going to be a concern for him but his runs on easy ground where over a mile & as he doesn't stay further than 6f on a plane so i'm prepared to give him a chance as he has a half sibling that won on heavy ground on its debut.

1pt e/w CAPTAIN SCOOBY 5.40 pontefract (nb) 6/1 p.p.

now the rain is IMPERATIVE if hes to have any chance & the more of it that falls the more his chance increases, it really is as simple as that. has also dropped to his last winning mark & young justin newman is just about worth his 5lb claim so if he can drop onto the rail which he should be able to as hes normally pretty slowly away he can pick them off one by one as the last place you want to be here is stuck out on the wing in no mans land.

1pt e/w CARRAGOLD 3.30 pontefract 22/1 stan james

another dropping onto his last winning mark & whilst that was a C5 event he did win a C4 last summer off 3lbs higher than this. on closer inspection his fourth place off 3lbs higher three runs back in a C4 reads very well as two of the three horses that finished behind him that day have since come out & won & i've got a sneaking suspicion he might get an easy lead here if he wants it & hes the sort of horse with his quirks that may just like being out on his own leading them a merry dance.

e/w trixie (2pts in total)

theres been some big movers in the #stealingaliving league this week & we have a new number one with two people fighting it out at the top of the table but stay tuned tomorrow evening for this weeks full top 10!!

many thanks for following..

regards
ian

26/7/2013

Evening sportsfans!! well considering we didn't nail a winner today a return of 20pts to our advised bets was most welcome! all three selections placed @ 9/2, 14/1 & 8/1 advised to land our e/w trixie & put us back on a profit of 80pts for the month & the triple figure profit target is back in our eyeline!! :-)

2pts e/w ES QUE LOVE 3.15 ascot (nap) 14/1 betfred

i think mark johnston must have bought the handicapper a bottle of whiskey as hes gifted him a 6lb drop since his last run which now sees him back on the mark which saw our nap that day prince of johanne chin him on the run in at sandown over a mile. the drop back to 7f paid dividends when he ran field of dream to a length at newmarket off a higher mark & i think hes far more effective over this shorter trip. he now gets handy weight pulls with those two conquerors & he can land this under olivier peslier who rode a fine race on him at sandown.

1pt e/w SIRIUS PROSPECT 2.20 york 14/1 paddy power

will find this level far more to his liking after tackling lethal force & co. in the diamond jubilee stakes at the royal meeting. he's also finished behind the likes of society rock, pearl mix, eton rifles, maarek, hitchens & the mighty thunder from down under that is black caviar. theres nothing of that nature in this field & it really isn't the strongest C2 handicap to be run on the navesmire to be honest. quite simply a re-run of any of his last half dozen runs would be more than good enough to take this.

1pt e/w GRAMERCY 3.30 york 20/1 coral

has now slipped a couple of pounds below the mark he ran the improving 3yo van ellis to a length & a quarter over C&D last summer. the johnston horse has gone on to win in listed company & was second to the smart rerouted over in meydan giving the form a very solid look about it. he clearly has ability & will bounce off the quick ground & the booking of pat cosgrave is interesting.

e/w trixie (2pts in total)

a cracking days racing tomorrow culminating with the king george being the highlight on the ascot card & whilst i try & put up value selections if the forecast rain comes for cirrus des aigles then the rest may as well not turn up. he is at least a stone better on heavy ground but if it stays dry then the 3yo trading leather could well bustle him up in reciept of 12lbs from the fav. dont get me wrong im not saying lay cirrus if it stays dry & hes quite capable on a quick surface, hes just nowhere near as good as when the heavens open is my point. many thanks for taking the time to read my blog & as always i wish you the best of luck with whatever you decide for your money tomorrow & happy punting!! :-)

regards
ian

25/7/2013

Evening sportsfans!! a blank day i'm afraid but in all fairness it really wasn't the greatest days racing considering there where six meetings. we still sit on a very tidy 68pts profit to advised bets for the month and hopefully i've found a few for tomorrow..

2pt win SEE CLEARLY 5.00 thirsk (nap) 4/1 bet365

has been knocking on the door lately & is only a pound above his last win over C&D. this really is a very poor race & i think the handicapper might have the measure of the favourite dartrix who looks the only conceavable danger as the 3yo's dont look great & the rest are a very mediocre bunch & this will be the lowest grade race hes faced in his career.

1pt e/w BEST BE CAREFUL 4.50 ascot (nb) 16/1 bet victor

last years winner comes here on a ten pound lower mark & she returns to ascot for the first time since. her sire exceed & excel has outstanding stats over the straight course here & he re-opposes last years third rowe park on eight pound better terms here. with young joey haynes claiming  seven pounds as well all looks set fare for a return to form here.

1pt e/w CRUISE TO THE LIMIT 5.25 thirsk 8/1 bet victor

has now dropped to his last winning mark & his second behind blanc de chine could well turn out to be very decent form. the handicappers helped him out a bit by dropping him a pound meaning he can sneak into this weaker contest & get back to winning ways.

e/w trixie (2pts in total)

many thanks for following..

regardsian