Evening sportsfans!! little joy today & very disappointing if i'm honest & i really was expecting alot more than that i must admit. tomorrow sees us lock horns with our old foe dawn approach.. here are my thoughts..
3.05 GOODWOOD 1m Group 1 Sussex Stakes
WE'RE TAKING HIM ON!! is the simple answer & i'll be laying win & place and heres why.. whilst we can argue all day long wether toronado was unlucky in defeat at ascot its a debate that will eventually have no outcome, simple as that because we will never know the answer to what would have happened without the interference & we cant re-write history but what we can do is try & predict the future! lets move slightly leftfield & analyse his actual form in the book.. firstly the 2000 guineas.. ok garswood has come out & won a G2 today but he didn't stay in the guineas & also would of hated the ground so that form is dubious.. the only other two winners (dawn approach apart) to come out of the race are a newbury maiden & a C2 handicap at chester... not exactly outstanding.. so we'll look at the st james' palace stakes.. his main rival that day was seen to be magician but he got stuck out wide & used up far to much energy early on to get involved which left it a duel between him & toronado.. and we know how that ended up.. BUT! ever since i have watched toronado run i have been convinced he will be a far better animal with some give underfoot.. the ground was rock hard in the guineas & he hated it..there was slightly more give at ascot which is why i think he got closer & tomorrow will be the softest hes come across (on current reading but conditions are drying all the time) & i think with any rain he will get the measure of jim bolgers charge. however my selection in the race is the aiden o'brien trained declaration of war, which i know may surprise a few people given the weight for age allowance to take into account but quite simply he brings by far the best form to the table in my opinion. his victory in the queen anne stakes is turning out to be one of the hottest races at the meeting with the likes of elusive kate (dual G1 winner since) aljamaaheer (G2 winner since) in behind that day. he then ran second to al kazeem in the eclipse & thats top drawer stuff, simple as that although i dont think he fully stays the 1m2f trip so the return to a mile is just the job & hes also versatile regards the ground. the big question has to be though wether he can give 8lbs to the 3yo's but bare in mind hes only had seven lifetime starts..two less than dawn approach so he could well have alot more to come. i have dawn approach's last two victories @ 116 (ascot) & 112 (guineas) & i have declaration of wars last two runs @ 122 (ascot) & 120 (sandown) so there pretty much level pegging with the weight allowance but with the o'brien runner still open to more i'm going with him to prevail over the younger generation tomorrow. now thats the form side of it out of the way we come to the horses mental state..the theorists about tactics in the derby have long since come & gone, he didn't stay, plain & simple but what did attribute greatly to him not staying was him pulling so hard & i actually have a seperate theory about this. on all of his previous starts he was basically able to jump & run, simple. at epsom he was never able to get into any kind of stride pattern & it had nothing to do with anybodys tactics he just didn't like going up & down the cambers in my opinion and if i'm right i think the same thing could quite well happen tomorrow & if he shows any signs of petulance he'll get blown apart as this track doesn't take any prisoners i can assure you & they are turning for alot of the journey here. i know you can argue that ascot was on the round course but its very flat there & there was a split second there when he tossed his head about after a couple of furlongs & i'm sure he'll do it again in the future...and with a bit of luck hopefully it will be tomorrow!
LAY: Dawn Approach
BACK: Declaration of war (nap)
the handicaps look very difficult to crack tomorrow but i'll be making a start shortly & hopefully will have a few more selections up later this evening..
here are tomorrows full advised bets..
2pts win DECLARATION OF WAR (nap) 5/1 paddy power
1pt win SECRET NUMBER (nb) 11/2 stan james
1pt e/w BROCKWELL 12/1
win doubles & e/w treble (2pts in total)
brockwell looks like he'll relish every yard of this trip & the more rain the better for him & his third in the northumberland plate is pretty much the best form on offer here. secret number was finishing like the proverbial train at ascot over 1m2f & hes another who will relish every yard of this extra trip tomorrow. whilst excess knowledge ran a cracker on his seasonal debut he was in reciept of lumps of weight in a listed contest.. the step up to G3 against his own age group will be a completly different ball game here.
many thanks for following..
regards
ian
3.05 GOODWOOD 1m Group 1 Sussex Stakes
WE'RE TAKING HIM ON!! is the simple answer & i'll be laying win & place and heres why.. whilst we can argue all day long wether toronado was unlucky in defeat at ascot its a debate that will eventually have no outcome, simple as that because we will never know the answer to what would have happened without the interference & we cant re-write history but what we can do is try & predict the future! lets move slightly leftfield & analyse his actual form in the book.. firstly the 2000 guineas.. ok garswood has come out & won a G2 today but he didn't stay in the guineas & also would of hated the ground so that form is dubious.. the only other two winners (dawn approach apart) to come out of the race are a newbury maiden & a C2 handicap at chester... not exactly outstanding.. so we'll look at the st james' palace stakes.. his main rival that day was seen to be magician but he got stuck out wide & used up far to much energy early on to get involved which left it a duel between him & toronado.. and we know how that ended up.. BUT! ever since i have watched toronado run i have been convinced he will be a far better animal with some give underfoot.. the ground was rock hard in the guineas & he hated it..there was slightly more give at ascot which is why i think he got closer & tomorrow will be the softest hes come across (on current reading but conditions are drying all the time) & i think with any rain he will get the measure of jim bolgers charge. however my selection in the race is the aiden o'brien trained declaration of war, which i know may surprise a few people given the weight for age allowance to take into account but quite simply he brings by far the best form to the table in my opinion. his victory in the queen anne stakes is turning out to be one of the hottest races at the meeting with the likes of elusive kate (dual G1 winner since) aljamaaheer (G2 winner since) in behind that day. he then ran second to al kazeem in the eclipse & thats top drawer stuff, simple as that although i dont think he fully stays the 1m2f trip so the return to a mile is just the job & hes also versatile regards the ground. the big question has to be though wether he can give 8lbs to the 3yo's but bare in mind hes only had seven lifetime starts..two less than dawn approach so he could well have alot more to come. i have dawn approach's last two victories @ 116 (ascot) & 112 (guineas) & i have declaration of wars last two runs @ 122 (ascot) & 120 (sandown) so there pretty much level pegging with the weight allowance but with the o'brien runner still open to more i'm going with him to prevail over the younger generation tomorrow. now thats the form side of it out of the way we come to the horses mental state..the theorists about tactics in the derby have long since come & gone, he didn't stay, plain & simple but what did attribute greatly to him not staying was him pulling so hard & i actually have a seperate theory about this. on all of his previous starts he was basically able to jump & run, simple. at epsom he was never able to get into any kind of stride pattern & it had nothing to do with anybodys tactics he just didn't like going up & down the cambers in my opinion and if i'm right i think the same thing could quite well happen tomorrow & if he shows any signs of petulance he'll get blown apart as this track doesn't take any prisoners i can assure you & they are turning for alot of the journey here. i know you can argue that ascot was on the round course but its very flat there & there was a split second there when he tossed his head about after a couple of furlongs & i'm sure he'll do it again in the future...and with a bit of luck hopefully it will be tomorrow!
LAY: Dawn Approach
BACK: Declaration of war (nap)
the handicaps look very difficult to crack tomorrow but i'll be making a start shortly & hopefully will have a few more selections up later this evening..
here are tomorrows full advised bets..
2pts win DECLARATION OF WAR (nap) 5/1 paddy power
1pt win SECRET NUMBER (nb) 11/2 stan james
1pt e/w BROCKWELL 12/1
win doubles & e/w treble (2pts in total)
brockwell looks like he'll relish every yard of this trip & the more rain the better for him & his third in the northumberland plate is pretty much the best form on offer here. secret number was finishing like the proverbial train at ascot over 1m2f & hes another who will relish every yard of this extra trip tomorrow. whilst excess knowledge ran a cracker on his seasonal debut he was in reciept of lumps of weight in a listed contest.. the step up to G3 against his own age group will be a completly different ball game here.
many thanks for following..
regards
ian
No comments:
Post a Comment