Evening sportsfans!! well not to bad today & we where only a nose away from a full house of lays but after filling the satchel with animal kingdom & shea shea backers money to payout @ 2.4 really wasn't the end of the world & it turned out a very profitable day all told. this is the beauty when your laying short priced favourites.. the facts tell you they wont all win & as long as i got one of the shorties beat i was going to be in profit & i'll take that over trying to get them all to win to make a profit any day of the week to be honest! lets see if we can press home the advantage after day one of the royal meeting..
2.30 ascot 7f G3 Jersey stakes
both the front two in the market have doubts in this for me.. gale force ten has arguably the best form coming into this on the back of his second to magician in the irish 2000 guineas but i think this 7f trip will be plenty sharp enough for him at this level & garswood has to bounce back after bombing out in the english version although the return to 7f should benefit him greatly though the free handicap he won on his penultimate start looks a weak renewal. if the heavens open i could be tempted to have a few shillings e/w on the godolphin horse tawhid, on a line through the hannon horse alhebayeb hes closely matched with garswood but hes had two runs on a decent surface & bombed out both times although his third last time out in the german 2000 guineas may well turn out to be semi decent form but we're going to go for a bit of value in the charlie hills trained ajraam i think. he beat the progressive henrytheaviator last time out conceding lumps of weight & that ones gone on to give the form a solid look. now i know the step up from handicap company to pattern race company is a big one.. huge in fact but they all have to start somewhere & after two runs & two wins on quick ground he'll relish tomorrows going but i will say keep an eye on the weather as he wont want much rain i dont think.
BACK: 1pt e/w AJRAAM 25/1 bet365
3.05 ascot 1m G2 Duke of Cambridge stakes
this is a straight shoot out between the top three in the market to be honest & if you ran the race three times you would probably get three different results but i think the irish raider duntle brings genuine group one form to the table and after only seven starts could well still be open to more improvement. we'll take last years sandringham winner to maintain her 100% record at the track.
BACK: 2pts win DUNTLE 11/4 william hill
3.45 ascot 1m 2f G1 Prince of Wales stakes
2.30 ascot 7f G3 Jersey stakes
both the front two in the market have doubts in this for me.. gale force ten has arguably the best form coming into this on the back of his second to magician in the irish 2000 guineas but i think this 7f trip will be plenty sharp enough for him at this level & garswood has to bounce back after bombing out in the english version although the return to 7f should benefit him greatly though the free handicap he won on his penultimate start looks a weak renewal. if the heavens open i could be tempted to have a few shillings e/w on the godolphin horse tawhid, on a line through the hannon horse alhebayeb hes closely matched with garswood but hes had two runs on a decent surface & bombed out both times although his third last time out in the german 2000 guineas may well turn out to be semi decent form but we're going to go for a bit of value in the charlie hills trained ajraam i think. he beat the progressive henrytheaviator last time out conceding lumps of weight & that ones gone on to give the form a solid look. now i know the step up from handicap company to pattern race company is a big one.. huge in fact but they all have to start somewhere & after two runs & two wins on quick ground he'll relish tomorrows going but i will say keep an eye on the weather as he wont want much rain i dont think.
BACK: 1pt e/w AJRAAM 25/1 bet365
3.05 ascot 1m G2 Duke of Cambridge stakes
this is a straight shoot out between the top three in the market to be honest & if you ran the race three times you would probably get three different results but i think the irish raider duntle brings genuine group one form to the table and after only seven starts could well still be open to more improvement. we'll take last years sandringham winner to maintain her 100% record at the track.
BACK: 2pts win DUNTLE 11/4 william hill
3.45 ascot 1m 2f G1 Prince of Wales stakes
LAY CAMELOT
well thats pretty much that race sorted.. you either believe the hype or you don't.. personally i dont & never have, he won three very sub standard classics & the fact that that hound born to sea got so close to him last year tells you all you need to know really. i have him down as a 112 rated performer on my ratings & i think i might be being genorous after the way al kazeem put him to the sword at the curragh last time out & aiden o'briens comment that he "got a bit tired" tells me you wern't doing your job properly then pal as he should of been spot on after a prep run. when he gets beat tomorrow no doubt he'll have some excuse waiting.. maybe he might have toothache tomorrow as the excuses are starting to wear very thin. personally i think once they realise he hasnt got the speed for 10f & switch him back to 12f, which his breeding suggests will suit him far more, maybe they might be able to pick up a small claimer or seller with him!lol only joking you camelot fans calm dowm!!! if the fugue turns up on her A-game she could well get involved but she has an absence to overcome & had a hard race at the breeders cup on her last start. the top horse i really like & at massive odds could well out run his odds if the ground stays quick but again we're yet to see him this term so boring as it maybe the fav looks the only real option to be honest.
LAY: spamelot
BACK: 2pts win AL KAZEEM 5/2 paddy power
4.25 ascot 1m Heritage Handicap Royal Hunt Cup
i'm going nap in this race on last years winner prince of johanne. hes now dropped to the same mark as last years win & the ground will be right up his street as well. he ran a cracking trial for this running second in a listed handicap behind navajo chief last time & a small weight pull should see him get past that rival tomorrow. the one i really do fear is last years fourth field of dream as you have to take note when adam kirby does 8-12 but prince of johanne is a pound better off for beating him a couple of lengths & should confirm the form.
BACK: 2pts e/w PRINCE OF JOHANNE (nap) 14/1 coral
i think i'll also throw the four in a lucky 15 & see if we can get a decent return going.
many thanks for following, your support is appreciated.. :-)
regards
ian
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