Evening sportsfans!! tomorrow sees the start of yorks ebor meeting & here are my thoughts on day one..
tomorrows advised bets..
1pt e/w ZERO MONEY 1.55 york (nap) 16/1
1pt e/w TRADING LEATHER 3.40 york (nb) 6/1 bet365
1pt e/w HOMERIC 4.20 york 7/1 bet365
e/w trixie (2pts in total)
3.05 york Great voltigeur Stakes (Group 2)
i'm sure regular followers will be fully anticipating me advising the lay on the highclere hype horse telescope... and at current odds hes plenty short enough in the market but when you contemplate laying something you must surely have something that beats it.. and thats where i have my problem. whilst this is a G2 its a weaker race in my opinion than the G3 he contested last time & i actually think he wins by default to be honest. firstly the step up in trip has to suit him better as hes out of a darshaan mare with a very strong stamina influence in the 2nd & 3rd dams. i went to watch his re-appearance at my local track leicester & whilst it was little more than an exercise gallop he looked a million dollars in the paddock that day & this is probably the weakest G2 you'll find for many a mile & that run last time out quite simply is the best form on offer here. cap o'rushes was so highly thought of by godolphin he started out as a pacemaker in the irish derby & holds the other godolphin runner secret number on there goodwood running but to be honest i backed secret number that day & he just looked like a horse that would find trouble in running in a walkover. foundry won his maiden well but nothing has come out of the race of any note & i'm not sure wether he might have had the odd setback making a belated re-appearance. willie the whipper looks like he needs soft ground & spillway i'll be surprised if hes upto this although he wasn't far behind cap o' rushes at goodwood which leaves us with nicholls canyon who again doesn't look upto this level. i certainly couldn't contemplate backing telescope at the forecast odds but if thats what floats your boat fill your boots...although i'll be happy to sit this one out & take a watching brief.
3.40 york Juddmonte International Stakes (Group 1)
who can forget frankels victory in this last year..imperious.. stepped up in trip & into unknown territory.. and yet they couldn't even get him off the bride.. such memories are treasured by all racing fans i'm sure & tomorrows renewal looks an absolute cracker to be honest and we're taking the favourite on here!! firstly the stats & trends are all against him but i don't tend to read to much into them, i'm more interested in his form in the book. so what do we know about his form this year.. we know hes a better horse than camelot.. but thats no great achievement.. and we know he can beat mukhadram.. a horse who started the season rated 101 by beating another poor excuse for a racehorse from last years woeful batch of 3yo's in main sequence. now since then hes twice finished in behind al kazeem yet been raised to a rating of 125? so according to the BHA hes improved nearly two stone by being beat by the same horse..and the same has to apply to al kazeem how is he a stone better horse by proving he can beat the same animal?? the one benchmark we do have is the o'brien runner declaration of war, who has finished behind both toronado & al kazeem this year & to be honest he ran a cracker at deauville last sunday but i think hes a miler at the top level as i think this trip just stretches him in this company. he got within 2l of al kazeem whilst toronado slammed him 3l when winning the recent duel on the downs at glorious goodwood so as you can see theres nothing between them on the book but the interesting one has to be jim bolgers trading leather at the bottom. hes done nothing but improve since stepped up in trip & is yet to finish out of the first two over 1m2f+. hes also the only one of the field to have course form as he ran very well when runner up in the dante over C&D. jim bolger isn't one for tilting at windmills & he'll know exactly where he is form wise through dawn approach's runs against toronado so the fact hes even crossing the sea has to be a big plus but my niggling doubt is that toronado could well still be a horse on the improve & the step up in trip will do nothing but improve him in my opinion being by high chaparral so i think my play on the race will be to lay al kazeem win & place with a small play on trading leather. basically if al kazeem is beat, i'll collect..the question is... how much!!??!!??
regards
ian
tomorrows advised bets..
1pt e/w ZERO MONEY 1.55 york (nap) 16/1
1pt e/w TRADING LEATHER 3.40 york (nb) 6/1 bet365
1pt e/w HOMERIC 4.20 york 7/1 bet365
e/w trixie (2pts in total)
3.05 york Great voltigeur Stakes (Group 2)
i'm sure regular followers will be fully anticipating me advising the lay on the highclere hype horse telescope... and at current odds hes plenty short enough in the market but when you contemplate laying something you must surely have something that beats it.. and thats where i have my problem. whilst this is a G2 its a weaker race in my opinion than the G3 he contested last time & i actually think he wins by default to be honest. firstly the step up in trip has to suit him better as hes out of a darshaan mare with a very strong stamina influence in the 2nd & 3rd dams. i went to watch his re-appearance at my local track leicester & whilst it was little more than an exercise gallop he looked a million dollars in the paddock that day & this is probably the weakest G2 you'll find for many a mile & that run last time out quite simply is the best form on offer here. cap o'rushes was so highly thought of by godolphin he started out as a pacemaker in the irish derby & holds the other godolphin runner secret number on there goodwood running but to be honest i backed secret number that day & he just looked like a horse that would find trouble in running in a walkover. foundry won his maiden well but nothing has come out of the race of any note & i'm not sure wether he might have had the odd setback making a belated re-appearance. willie the whipper looks like he needs soft ground & spillway i'll be surprised if hes upto this although he wasn't far behind cap o' rushes at goodwood which leaves us with nicholls canyon who again doesn't look upto this level. i certainly couldn't contemplate backing telescope at the forecast odds but if thats what floats your boat fill your boots...although i'll be happy to sit this one out & take a watching brief.
3.40 york Juddmonte International Stakes (Group 1)
who can forget frankels victory in this last year..imperious.. stepped up in trip & into unknown territory.. and yet they couldn't even get him off the bride.. such memories are treasured by all racing fans i'm sure & tomorrows renewal looks an absolute cracker to be honest and we're taking the favourite on here!! firstly the stats & trends are all against him but i don't tend to read to much into them, i'm more interested in his form in the book. so what do we know about his form this year.. we know hes a better horse than camelot.. but thats no great achievement.. and we know he can beat mukhadram.. a horse who started the season rated 101 by beating another poor excuse for a racehorse from last years woeful batch of 3yo's in main sequence. now since then hes twice finished in behind al kazeem yet been raised to a rating of 125? so according to the BHA hes improved nearly two stone by being beat by the same horse..and the same has to apply to al kazeem how is he a stone better horse by proving he can beat the same animal?? the one benchmark we do have is the o'brien runner declaration of war, who has finished behind both toronado & al kazeem this year & to be honest he ran a cracker at deauville last sunday but i think hes a miler at the top level as i think this trip just stretches him in this company. he got within 2l of al kazeem whilst toronado slammed him 3l when winning the recent duel on the downs at glorious goodwood so as you can see theres nothing between them on the book but the interesting one has to be jim bolgers trading leather at the bottom. hes done nothing but improve since stepped up in trip & is yet to finish out of the first two over 1m2f+. hes also the only one of the field to have course form as he ran very well when runner up in the dante over C&D. jim bolger isn't one for tilting at windmills & he'll know exactly where he is form wise through dawn approach's runs against toronado so the fact hes even crossing the sea has to be a big plus but my niggling doubt is that toronado could well still be a horse on the improve & the step up in trip will do nothing but improve him in my opinion being by high chaparral so i think my play on the race will be to lay al kazeem win & place with a small play on trading leather. basically if al kazeem is beat, i'll collect..the question is... how much!!??!!??
regards
ian
No comments:
Post a Comment