31/8/2012

morning all!!!! well i think the least said about yesterday the better TBH...absolutly woeful day on all fronts,the 14 nap winning run on the lay selections came crashing down like a pack of cards & our nap ran a stinker,clearly hating the ground,im not one to bemoan bad luck as i really believe your luck levels itself out over a season but something must be done about these going descriptions as it is just simply tucking punters up.onto today & after much pouring over the form i couldnt find a decent price lay selection for the life of me so i have a NAP & a NB selection for you today.

todays BACK selections...

star surprise              4.35 sandown (NAP)

now for this horse its imperative that he has decent ground,if theres any cut at all,abandon ship!
he comes here after a couple of spins on the soft which would have put him spot on for today after having three excellent runs in dubai,prior to leaving for dubai he was plying his trade in C2 & C3 events and performing with distinction,his 3rd hehind tazahum (rated 114) reads exceptionally well and if he runs anywhere near that run he will pick these up & carry them,drawn three this C&D winner should be able to blast out under billy buick,grab the rail & put them to the sword,this horse would also be an excellent trade prospect as he will almost certainly make the running & trade shorter in-play.

savanna days         5.35 sandown (NB)

now this one took a bit more digging but hopefully weve found a gem here,now he takes a substantial drop in grade today & the step up in trip has to be taken somewhat on trust but at likely big odds he has to be worth a punt e/w off todays mark of 78 (his lowest mark since scoring at kempton) he was only 2 lengths behind my sharona at newbury & that beast has since made hay whilst the sun has been shining this summer.
he has been running on strongly over 8 & 9 furlongs so todays ten could be ideal.

as always i would like to thank you for reading my blog & sharing my thoughts on the days racing & i wish you all good fortune with whatever you decide today.

many thanks & the best of luck.

ian

30/8/2012

morning all & welcome to my blog!! well yesterday has to be filed under "frustrating" in all fairness...rock canyon suffering the fate of all good e/w shots in finishing fourth then the nap looking all over the winner & trading @ 1.07 in running on the exchanges only to get chinned at the death,those that where on at fancy prices the night before picked up place money but it was scant consolation to be honest.but onto today & her are my views...

today's LAY selections...

pahente                  3.00 lingfield

he comes here carrying a six pound penalty after his latest success but thats where the run ends for him im afraid,hes ran off this mark in the past (technically 51) but to no avail,he does like this 11f trip tho but even so he has to struggle off this mark.

todays NAP selection...

haadeeth               3.35 lingfield

well this looks like its been sent from the gods today.it's last four runs,where he started at odds of 25/1 & upwards,were obviously to get a decent h'cap mark as it clearly doesn't stay further than 6F & also hates soft ground,if you scrub out all his runs that were over 6F and had soft in the going description, you would be left with a very impressive profile,just over 3L behind a 78 rated rival in a C4 & then just over 2L behind a 75 rated rival in a C3,he actually won off a mark of 77 at the beginning of april this year & it cant be a coincidence that hes been campaigned over inadequate trips & going (this is a usual ploy of trainers) in order to gain a decent mark & with richard hughes on board & off a near career low mark of 64 he could pick these up & carry them if the mood takes him,there should be enough value to back this at a decent e/w price,however i must urge followers to keep an eye on the going,im writing this at 07.35 & the current description is GD/GD FM IN PLACES which is ideal but if theres heavy rain abort the mission as he cant have soft in the going description & with the race being the fifth on the card it gives more than enough time to evaluate the going.

todays BACK selection...

celtic charlie           3.00 lingfield

i think this could be charlies day today,he gets in here off a mark of 47,he has also won round here on the polytrack off a 2lb higher mark than todays & ran a blinder last time out for followers @ 16/1 which should just tee him up nicely for today,he was beaten by a very progressive horse of mark johnston's LTO & meets nothing of that calibre today.ian mongan takes over the steering  which is a massive bonus as he can be a bit of an old rogue at times (celtic charlie,not ian mongan!!lol) and "mongy" was the last jock to win on him,expect him to blast out & make all.

todays JOB horse...

gouranga

this is a new section of the blog were we try & target potential plots by trainers at very good prices & today we have a very interesting contender in gouranga,trained by A W CARROL,who loves a punt,this is his only runner at the track & also mattie bachelors only ride.hes back on his last hurdles winning mark & has had a recent pipe opener on the flat (tenderly handled,never in contention) now if theres ANY money at all for this he has to be backed....but equally if it drifts like a barge keep your hand firmly in your pockets!


many thanks for reading my thoughts on the days racing & good luck with whatever you decide today.
if you like what ive got to say how about a re-tweet!?!? comments & R/T's most appreciated.

regards
ian

29/8/2012

morning #teamchoochoo!!!!! and what a fine morning it is today after another memorable day for followers,with all the euphoria around our nap selections pulling up trees,the "bread & butter" part of the site,the daily lays,has manged to slip under the radar somewhat & yesterday we nailed our 12th lay in a row! the nap as you all now was never in any question after a superb ride from ian mongan,grabbing the race by the scruff of the neck & never giving them a chance,if all our naps were ridden like that the world would be a better place! enough wollowing in our glory & the show goes on so onto todays racing.

today's LAY selections are...

TODAY'S LAY SELECTION WAS SOVEREIGN STREET 4.10 CATTERICK
                        THIS IS NOW A NON-RUNNER.

i could put up a replacement selection but it wouldnt be fair on people that invest there hard earned money
on here.i put between 6-8 hrs form study in each day & simply dont have the time to get the form books back out at this late hour to replace it,i hope followers understand.

today's BACK selections are...

rock canyon                     3.00 carlisle
indego blues                    4.10 catterick (NAP)

we'll go from the top as always,now this is very interesting as he comes here on his last winning mark of 58 having benefited from a recent weight drop,but the key factor here is the trip,i think hes actually a 5 1/2 half furlong horse,which is perfect for today,if you look at his form over 5f this season it reads 4-1-4-3 as it clearly doesnt stay 6f after being bang there last twice at the furlong marker only to drop away,he will love the underfoot conditions & "steady" freddie tylicki takes the ride which is always a bonus,however,i take you back to his maiden win back in may for the conclusive form line,back in third that day was gowanharry,who he gave a 5L thrashing that day,that horse came out next time to win a hcap off 65 & is now rated 68,in the context of todays race thats red hot form,like i say we can scrub his last two outings over 6f but prior to that ran very creditably in third in a C4 off a mark of 62 which is far better than anything in this field had achieved.then onto todays NAP,indego blues,to be fair it was the spin of a coin which one would be "nap material" but ive decided to burden this selection with it!!!lol this one stinks of a typical dandy plot,hes going to relish conditions today & this one again benefits from a slight weight drop.hes back in a C5 for the first time  since his win & trotter nicholls takes back over the reigns today,he has an absolutly blinding draw in 2 & again you can scrub his run LTO as he clearly didnt stay however after watching re-runs of his victory it was clear he relished the ground & really strode out on it well,today hes back on his favoured going so everything looks geared to a dandy special & i can see this grabbing the rail & "trotter" can pinch an early lead and stay there.

many thanks for taking the time to read my blog,however there still seems to be a certain "element" that wants to pick fault & have a dig,for whatever reason i have know idea,jealousy?? i dont know & to be quite frank,i dont really care.....but just the mere fact that they take the time to read my blog tells me everything i need to know...that im living completly rent free in there tiny little minds.....

however good luck with whatever you decide today & happy punting!!

regards
ian

28/8/2012

morning sportsfans! straight into it today with as always a quick word on yesterday,the nap for a split second looked like streaking home but alas was not to be as the favourite hampered him very badly in the final furlong leaving him completly unbalanced & unable to recover in the final half furlong,im not one to rue bad luck as i believe your luck evens itself out over the course of a season & the fact remains weve gone two days without a winner now.the days lay again duly obliged & that section of the blogs ticking over nicely showing a nice level stakes profit.so onto today....

today's LAY selections are....

if i where a boy                    5.00 epsom

right then this one scored LTO in an apprentice h'cap which means he swerves a weight rise but even so i cant have this today.theres no hiding place around here & can be unforgiving to an inexperienced rider.without doubt this is alot better race than that he won & crucially i think he needs to be bouncing of the ground,which i dont think will happen today.


today's BACK selections are....

sacrosanctus                      2.50 epsom (NAP)
miss cap estel                    5.00 epsom
seagoing                            5.15 ripon

we'll start with todays NAP & sacrosanctus is a real gem today.hes had two runs here,2nd in a class 2 off a mark of 83 & then winning off a mark of 84 in a class 3,both of which were better races than this one today.
he's had four runs since that victory & all were in a higher grade than todays which has enabled his h'cap mark to slip back to a competitive one (races back off 84 today) ian mongan takes the ride & he knows the horse well having won on him when he was with dandy nicholls.epsom really is a specialist track & he knows it like the back of his hand,to be honest hes unlucky not to be unbeaten round here as when he was beaten  luis rey attacked him very wide so he wasnt able to see the challenge with his blinkers on as he seems to pull out more when hes challenged.he wont want the ground to soft so keep an eye on that but everything else seems to be in place for a massive run.
the next,miss cap estel will relish todays trip of ten furlongs,she'll get this far & more in future as shes a half sister to 3 mile winning hurdler royal riviera!! and being by hernando her pedigrees all stamina so everything shes done upto now has to be treated as a bonus.the same applies to the final selection seagoing,she's by a nashwan mare so this step up to 2 miles is just what the doctor ordered & off a mark of 60 today could be absolutly thrown in,i can see this one running up a sequence & if it was trained by sir mark prescott it would be about 11/10 today!! they should all be decent prices so im going for an e/w trixie today.

many thanks for taking the time to read my blog & sharing my thoughts for the day,i try to make my blog interesting & a decent read so all comments & constructive criticism are gratefully recieved...

regards
ian

27/8/2012

morning all!!! well as always a quick word on yesterday,lay selection well beat,god only knows what george baker was doing on trader jack,the twat came there a furlong to soon with a double handful on a horse that has to be held up to the death! but sometimes you have to wipe your mouth & move on so onto today...

today's LAY selections are...

rockinante                               3.40 epsom

today's BACK selections are...

dishy guru                               2.30 epsom
stone of folca                          3.05 epsom

from the top as always,right then this thing of hannon's is rated 105 today,the main reason its fav i would imagine,but his recent form has been nothing better than mid 90's to be honest & has it to find with today's rival medhi on there running at salisbury this month & i dont class him as the biggest danger!! he has a very regressive profile & i'll gladly take this on at cramped odds.onto the back selections & it's todays NAP dishy guru that should get us out of the blocks faster than usain bolt! this race could have been made for him,back on his winning mark of 75,should get a bit of cut,C5,6F & liam kenirys back on board today,hes been very highly tried since winning off this mark at the beginning of april,behind mince in a C2 at newmarket,he then went upto haydock where the ground was way to firm however LTO ran a cracker behind pale orchid in 0-90 under a very tender ride at leicester ( i was on course that day) however it cant be a coincidence today that not only is he dropped into a C5 but the h'capper has dropped him 2lbs today...enabling him to sneak into this 0-75 contest under top weight,the same level of his last victory,maximum confidence today.the second selection,stone of folca,has a similiar profile to dishy guru,slight weight drop enabling him to sneak into this grade today,he won over c&d off 93 & goes off 98 today but dont despair as hes been running against the highest class & was only 4L behind ortensia at glorious goodwood! he's got a cracking draw today & is a proper little speed ball,however hes not going to want it to soft so you will have to keep an eye on the earlier races to see how the grounds running,jim crowley takes the ride today & thats certainly no hinderance,very simple today staking wise,e/w singles & an e/w double.many thanks for reading my thoughts & constructive comments & criticism are greatfully recieved....however if your in the small band of idiots that just want to snipe & bitch about things thats fine,i'll simply block & ignore you...a dignified silence is best at all times...you know who you are..but as always good luck with whaever you decide today & happy bank holiday! :-)

regards
ian

26/8/2012

oh dear lord...what can i say about yesterday!?!? the blog really is pulling up trees at the minute & followers have been well & truly rewarded this week showing a profit of +£40 to a £1 level stake culminating in frankie's ebor romp @ 14/1 advised...i said your only as good as your last selection yesterday...well my last selection was the frigging ebor winner so im entitled to wallow!!!lol anyway im boring myself now so onto today..

today's LAYS are...

commend                             2.45 goodwood

really dont understand why this is forecast sp favourite against some half decent animals today,he still only has a 9f carlisle maiden victory to his name & got turned over off a mark of 84 in a 0-85 h'cap LTO which isnt great considering he goes in a 0-95 off a mark off 87,surely he has to struggle today.

today's BACKS are...

shamrocked                        2.10 goodwood
trader jack                          2.45 goodwood
rondeau                              5.00 goodwood

from the top as always & shamrocked looks to have been sent by the gods today,he's back on his last winning mark of 70 with charles bishop claiming an additional 5lbs off his back,that win at newbury is the key tho,he was able to get his toe in that day & thats what he needs,so he'll definatly have conditions underfoot to suit today,but if you have a look at his runs since he was behind van ellis in a C2 which was to be expected so we'll put a line thro that run,then they chucked him into a 0-80 C4,again outclassed but not disgraced,then onto sandown in a 0-75 but the ground was completly against him,he then went to lingfield,again in a 0-75 & again the ground was against him then strangly he was tried on the a/w in a 0-75,which he obviously didnt like....now here's the key,after his recent weight drop,today is the first time since he won that hes back in a 0-70,back on some ground with cut & back in a C5,if he gets in front today which is very likely as there seems only king vahe likely to challenge for the lead,they really wont see which way this fella goes.the next selection of the day,trader jack,is SUPER NAP material,hes another who you can scrub his last three runs,but prior to that was beaten only 2L off level weights by grandeur (now rated 107) he only has to run within 10lb of that run to take this contest with the minimum of fuss,after his run behind grandeur he went to royal ascot but was never going to get competitive over an inadequate 8f,he then got to within 3L of stature of a mark of 90 at newmarket after pulling way to hard & then had the most awful run LTO being battered all over the place but still only beaten around 2L,when he was beaten at newmarket he also had the likes of  haajes (rated 96) fennel bay & prussian in behind and theres nothing of that calibre here & down to a mark of 89 today he's only a pound higher than his run behind grandeur.the final selection rondeau,is a bit of a conundrum but hes back on his last winning mark of 77 today & could be worth an e/w bet to small stakes as we do have to forgive him quite a bit on his latest runs but many horses have a "level" that they win at & this could quite fesibly be his,he is a bit of an epsom specialist & i cant find conclusive proof he'll go on the ground but at a big price has to be worth an interest.my main bet today is the singles & e/w double on the first two but i'll be putting rondeau with them in an e/w patent.
i have to say since yesterday ive had a few disconserting tweets saying im "after timing" with my selections
and claiming false results... i know 100% this blog goes online every morning at 9.00 am so @atta4luv go & boom someone else with your short priced losers! this blog IS FREE and always will be whilst i write it & is somewhere i can go & put my thoughts down for the day's racing for the world to see & either agree or disagree with,but as always,dont gamble with money you cant afford to lose,i do this for a living & am still learning every day about the game,if abuse continues i'll just pull the plug,i try & make my blog interesting & contain something for everyone but obviously theres no pleasing some people, but as always good luck with what you decide today & happy punting!

regards
ian

25/8/2012

morning team mallard!!! :-) and what a morning it is after yesterdays monumental day at york,all selections nailed win & place including a 65/1 double & a very short favourite beat win & place in the lay section! firstly kieron bought home the bacon on progressive stayer kirthill then we put our trust in frankie....and our boy delivered in style scorching down the knavesmire in full flight to bring dubai prince home with the minimum amount of fuss,KERCHING! enough wallowing as we all know were only as good as our last selection & onto today.

today's LAYS are...

motivado                3.40 york


today's BACK selections are...

biographer            2.30 york
willing foe             3.40 york

from the top then,typical sir mark prescott beast with a similiar profile to many of his stablemates & runners from the yard are open to any amount of improvement but this one im not so sure as hes already had 12 outings and if you look at his run  behind mount athos on his penultimate start he looked like a non stayer,cruising up on the outside only to weaken 2 furlongs out like he hit a wall and that was on a mark of 95,2lbs lower than todays mark,granted mount athos has upheld the form but the form of his win LTO isn't great and his opponents that day where knowhere near the class of the opposition he faces today.im gonna stem the flow & stand this all day long win & place.
now onto our back selections & biographer really could be a potential group race performer masquerading in a hcap,stepped up in trip hes open to any amount of improvement over this longer trip that hes been screaming out for and connections must surely have the same view as he's entered up in the 2m 2f cesarewith!! then the NAP goes,willing foe in the ebor.with frankie on board this very progressive son of dynaformer can bring home the bacon today & reward followers at a decent price.although a 5-y-o he has had only eight lifetime starts so could still be open to improvement & godolphin have given the gelding time to mature,he has form that closely ties in with yesterdays winner kirthill,being beaten only a length over an inadequate 10f & also his second in the november h'cap behind zuider zee reads very well with that rival now rated 108.he's another that will relish the extra two furlongs today & is proven with some give underfoot,i'll be having an e/w double on these two but as always whatever you decide good luck & happy punting!!

regards
ian

24/8/2012

morning sportsfans!!!! as always a quick word on yesterday,three short priced lays beaten in that section then the rain fell about an hour to soon as scirocco star really needed the ground to be lively to be seen to best effect so personally i side stepped the race & hope followers had the same sense to.the nap of the meeting,night lily,was then withdrawn in the last owing to the ground so the only "live" section from yesterdays blog were the lay selections so it turned out to be a decent day.
enough of the past & onto the future,with heavy overnight rain at york there is surface water around the track & surrounding area's with more of the wet stuff forecast at periodic intervals today.that wipes out approx. half of last nights six hours of form study but in fairness i'd rather know now rather than at 13.55 when the days racing is about to commence!!!we'll start with the lays as always so here goes..

today's LAYS are...

stipulate                            3.05 york

looking at todays going i find it hard to understand why this colt of sir henry's is trading at the top of the market,he was tailed off in the bet365 classic trial at sandown but its hard to take that form literally as it really was to bad to be true & stopped virtually to walk.i really do think this horse is better over 10f & being by dansili would want a half decent surface,neither of which he gets today & even on official ratings he's got it all to do. his fourth behind trumpet major reads well but he was getting 4lbs that day as well as running against his own age group & we all know what i think of this season's mediocre bunch! but here's the key,today's the first time he runs against the elder generation & the fact hes struggling against his own generation doesn't bode well against todays very experienced rivals,i'll be taking this on win & place with much confidence.

today's BACK selection's are...

kirthill                              2.00 york
dubai prince                    3.05 york

from the top,kirthill,recently been dropped a couple of pounds,which is always helpful,but the main thing is it now gives him a chance to sneak into todays lower grade affair against far less opposition than he's been taking on lately,you can scrub his run at goodwood LTO,he was caught out wide pulling way to hard & seen far to much daylight to get involved at the business end of the race.he now tackles 12f for the first time & im expecting marked improvement for the step up in trip for this son of danehill dancer & the forecast soft ground certainly wont be a hinderance & at around 12/1 is exceptional value for an e/w punt. the next,dubai prince,he's a G3 winner in his native ireland & comes here as the top rated horse in the field,he wont mind the underfoot conditions at all having won twice previously with soft in the going descriptions.he's another one who you can scrub his run LTO,clearly didnt stay the 12f trip & will be far more at home over todays distance,prior to that he slammed 107 rated rival fury over 4 length's over C&D in a conditions race but it does show us he's worthy of his rating of 116.personally i'll be having a nice e/w double on these two.whatever you decide i wish you luck & happy punting!!!

regards

ian

23/8/2012

morning decipals!!!! a quick word on testerday,frankel,i think everythings been said & more but we had a couple of decent shorties beat in the lay section,danadana was a disappointing place lay but & 2.3 theres not alot of damage done & it did run a blinder.the back selections didn't produce a winner but boy did we hit the woodwork!placed efforts at 16/1 & 8/1 and only kaldoun kingdom missing out by a nose cost us another memorable e/w treble.onto today's selections,we'll start with the lays..

today's LAYS are...

newfangled             2.30

the fuge                  3.40

sequence                4.15

from the top then,newfangled took the G3 albany stakes at royal ascot but in all fairness it wasn't the greatest race depth wise & in quality,i will be interested what the rest of the field go on & achieve this season but the main reason for laying this is that she's only faced ground with plenty of give in it upto now & looked to love every minute she spent on it,today will see alot quicker surface & against alot better rivals (steps upto G2) so at forecast odds on we'll gladly take her on.the fugue returns to the scene of her musidora victory but that was over 10 furlongs,which is arguably her best trip,today she's back over 12 furlongs against the two that finished in front of her in the oaks,shirocco star & was and i genuinly cant see any reason why she's going to turn the tables on those two opponents,add to the mix arc runner up shareta & this is a very hot affair,i am even going to be so bold as to lay this in the place market as well, more on a value basis to be honest as i think she's ridiculously short today.the final selection is our old enemy sequence,she owes us a few quid after laying her last time out & i'll be first in the queue to lay this one at short odds,just on ratings alone she has to improve astone to get competitive and i really do think last out it was a bit of a freak result as they let ryan have an uncontested lead & never got near him,again i'll be having a bit of the place market on this one as well.

todays BACK selections are...

shirocco star           3.40

night lily                  4.50

shirocco star has been a credit to connections being classic placed in the oaks beaten less than a length & in the irish version turned the tables on epsom conqueror was,i think she's still got some improvement in her & it was a canny move sidestepping the nassau at goodwood which would have been way to short for this scirroco sired filly & she will come here fresher than most & richard hughes steps in for the ride today & connections will be keen to get a group win into her as she's only won a maiden upto now for broodmare purposes so she'll be tuned to the minute today & bringing proven G1 form into the race i think she is great e/w value.

the next one night lily is my NAP of the meeting,i think she's far better over todays 7f trip rather than a mile even tho shes never won over it,now lets take a look at her 7f form this year 3rd in a deauville listed first time out beaten less than a length,fourth in a wolverhampton listed affair beaten less than 3 lengths,then a cracking effort beaten half a length by chachamaidee (rated 113) at lingfield & last time out beaten less than 2 1/2 lengths (behind a 105 rated rival) at goowood,that form is of the highest order coming into this class 2 handicap & it looks like the stable mean business with the booking of crack apprentice michael murphy claiming seven means she gets in here off her lower turf mark of 82!! this is because her a/w rating is alot higher than her turf mark,but you cant say she doesnt like turf as shes been campaigned primarily on the a/w so hasnt had the chance to prove herself,but the run LTO on turf tells us she handles it fine & with the highest rated performer being only 91 today she could technically be about 20lb wrong today & hose up by the length of the straight,well she did in my dreams last night anyway!!!lol as always good luck with whatever you decide today,wether it be back,lay or trade!!!

22/8/2012

morning followers!! well what can i say about yesterday,apart from days like that come along few & far between & need to be enjoyed when they do!! winners @14/1 & 15/2,placed @10/1 & 8/1,personally i had a lovely e/w treble on @ 14/1 10/1 & 15/2 & three short priced favs beat in the lay section so im like a dog with two dicks this morning!! enough of yesterday & onto today..

today's LAYS are...

main sequence                                   3.05 york

today's PLACE LAYS are...

st. nicholas abbey                              3.40 york

never can tell                                     4.15 york

danadana                                          4.50 york

as always we'll take it from the top,after winning the lingfield derby trial main sequence was 2nd in the derby then 4th in the french version under a woeful ride but the horses he meets today are made up of late maturing types that will come into there own at this part of the season,the early season 3-y-o's are a pretty mediocre bunch in my opinion & still to this day im dubious as to how good camelot actually is after born to sea got so close to him in the irish derby & i'll be taking this on with confidence.onto the place lays & you may think im mad laying SNA but he's a 12F horse all day long & with a host of high class 10F horses (twice over,farhh,planteur) looking to fill the places behind the great one he could be a shorty to get stuck into & with joseph o'brien on board he wont get a masive amount of assistance from the saddle,young joseph's clangers are stacking up at an alarming rate this season & i think his confidence must be struggling.never can tell runs here off a mark of 100 & if she defies this mark i may fall off my seat,weight stops trains so it wont have any problem stopping this mare!! and finally danadana,he comes here being dropped a pound from his last defeat but to be honest he really struggled  at goodwood & had 2 or 3 of todays rivals in front of him that day & i cant see any reason why he'll turn the form around on similiar terms.

and now onto the selections that will be carrying the #mallardmillions today.

today's BACK selections are...

kaldoun kingdom                            2.00 york

noble mission                                  3.05 york

dazinski                                          4.15 york

spanish duke                                   4.50 york

from the top again,kaldoun kingdom hasnt really shown yet this season but todays the day!!! his mark has gradually slipped this season & now goes here off 93,a mark he hasnt raced off since oct' '09 when he won here at york under a canny ride in the coral sprint,he's perfectly drawn in the centre so hanigan can pick which pack to follow,he wont mind any ease in the ground (tick box),cracking draw (tick box),fahey at york (tick box),ran respectably last time behind van ellis (tick box) & most importantly,hanigan takes over the reigns for the first time this seaon...it all smells of a typical fahey plot & carries maximum confidence today.

the next horse,noble mission more or less speaks for itself & i think he's still got some improvement in him,he's still only had 6 lifetime runs.dazinski could be another one for the champ jock today,running off 88 he's only a pound higher than his last win here at york,that win came on his 7th run that season so he takes a while to warm up but on his fifth start of this season he should be ready to pounce.finally spanish duke,teddy ahern had a couple of decent winners on saturday & is a half decent pilot on the big day,he goes here off 94,a pound lower than his win in the city & suburban at epsom & was staying on nicely last time at goodwood whilst still managing to stay under the radar,ahern rode him to victory at epsom so knows the horse well,good luck to everyone whatever you decide today,back,lay,trade,profits profit! :-)

21/8/2012

well what an anti-climax yesterday turned out to be,the four selections i'd spent six hours pouring over the form for may as well nave been ripped up & chucked out the window after looking at the going in the first race,i genuinly thought it would be good/quickish ground,very bad call,there was an awful lot of cut there yesterday so sometimes its best to turn of the laptop & walk away.but chin's up & onward we move,cant help but be semi-excited as im trying to get to see frankel tomorrow at york but we'll save that conversation til later!! onto today's racing & my thoughts,firstly i have to admit i have only covered one card today as i was late starting to study last night but here are my thoughts..

today's lays are...

1. welsh nayber                              3.15 brighton
2. ukranian                                     3.45 brighton 
3. waspy                                        4.45 brighton

ok then from the top,welsh nayber,0/7 in C5 races & yet to reach a place.upto a creer high mark of 66 today,he has run off 65 before...being beaten 10L plus at kempton,cant have this today.ukranian is alot more interesting,he bolted up at ayr LTO but that was over an extra two furlongs and i genuinly think thats what bought out the required improvement to win but he's back on a higher mark today off 74,a mark which he's struggled off on turf already & while last time was a 0-70 h'cap i think he's up against a bunch with alot more potential today.finally our friend waspy,no dickie hughes today which is a negative going off a career high mark isn't going to be easy at all & im convinced she wants some cut to be at her best,which she wont get today & to be honest i dont think even her best will be good enough today.

here's a first for the blog,here are the horses that will be carrying the #mallardmillions today,they are...

today's BACK selection's are...

1. aciano                                                     2.45 brighton
2. kelpie blitz                                               3.15 brighton
3. dont take me alive                                   3.45 brighton
4. watt broderick                                        4.15 brighton
5. stonescrabtomorrow                               4.45 brighton
6. scommettitrice                                        5.15 brighton

aciano should get us off to a decent start today,ive been waiting for this one to go over a shorter trip for a while & an added bonus today it gets a drop in grade as well as being on a career low mark.kelpie blitz has slipped a couple of pounds since finishing second here & should go well at a decent price,i like horses that have performed at brighton previously as it's a very unforgiving track for the inexperienced.dont take me alive take's a marked drop in class from his previous run & could well be upto upsetting the principals today.the same profile applies to watt broderick,he drops back into his winning grade & should take this with the minimum amount of fuss today.the final two selection's really are brighton "specialists" stonescrabtomorrow bounced back to something like his best when second here behind efistorm,i think this is his grade now & can give us a nice return,final selection scommettitrice,he ran a decent race off this new mark LTO & now dropped back slightly in grade,that was in a 0-75,he can regain the winning thread.

comments & constructive criticism are gratefully recieved.

regards

ian.

20/8/2012

morning all,you notice ive missed the good off today,monday mornings are really not my favourite time of the week but they come round just as quick as a saturday afternoon so we'll have to make the most of it,the one thing i would like to add is,this blog is for information purposes only,it is where i can go & put my thoughts/bets for the day for the world to read & either agree or disagree,as was yesterday when i went head to head with the well known twitterati tipster @glennphil2012....and we came out of the battle well & truly with egg on our faces,mince broke well out wide & to be fair the others didnt see which way she went & group races beckon for the charlton filly,i would like to think im a sporting loser & credit to those that backed mince.so onto today,ive targeted the PLACE markets today at thirsk & think i might have found a few gems.

today's PLACE lays are...

1. dispol grand                                 3.00 thirsk
2. mistress of rome                           3.30 thirsk
3. it's a mans world                           4.00 thirsk
4. fine altomis                                   4.30 thirsk 

we'll start from the top,dispol grand goes in a C4 h'cap today,with a record of 0/7 in the grade & he does seem to have a preference for softish ground which personally i dont think he'll get today,but the final & biggest nail in his coffin today is he's had 9 races off a mark of 68 or above in his career...and has yet to get his head in front,so off a mark of 76 today i cant have it at any price.mistress of rome has a very different profile & the reason for laying this is the trip,over 12 furlongs today and being by holy roman emperor he's not going to get any assistance from the breeding side & watching re-runs of his performances upto now i wouldnt say it would relish the step up in trip at all,also being on a career high mark after a string of placed efforts certainly aren't going to help matters.it's a mans world is a bit of a puzzler tho,having been picked up by brian ellison he's won a couple of  low grade h'caps off a mark of 52 but takes a massive weight hike upto 64 today,now he's had 10 runs off marks of 60 & above...and yes you guessed it,has yet to get his head in front,i accept ellison has found some improvement upto now but this is going to take a herculian task to defy the handicapper today,so onto our final selection,fine altomis,again the problem i have with this is the trip,his two decent runs were over further & off a lower mark,today's 7F trip & a mark of 76 will combine to trip this gelding up today,good luck with whatever your backing or laying today & thanks for reading!

19/8/2012

morning all!!! just a quick word on yesterday's selections,safe as houses,money banked,enough said!!! right then today were going to use a system that weve all used before & have all spent at least 10 years of our lives studying it...thats right,good old basic mathematics!!!lol

today's lays are...

key gold                                  2.45 pontefract                  unpl @ 3.9
mince                                      3.45 pontefract                WON @ 3.8*



lets start with mince,LTO she won C2 hcap at the shergar cup meeting off 94,possibly putting in a career best performance,now she has been tried in this grade before in early june,finishing 7th where one of her rivals today,artistic jewel was 4L in front her giving 4LB!! so where does the required improvement come from?? the trip? no,the going? no,the opposition? definatly not!!!! the draw? no,clutching at straws,quite possibly!!!!! now lets analyze the shergar cup form,the second horse,galician was well beat yesterday in a h'cap off 91 so here's the basic maths,has to find around 6-8lb with artistic jewel & needs to find around 10lb improvement from its last run.....if you think it can by all means back it,but i certainly wont!!! onto the second selection & again our good friend "basic maths" is going to help us out here also,key gold won a 0-75 LTO off 69,prior to that she struggled off marks in the early 70's so winning today off a revised mark of 76 is going to be damn near impossible when you couple that with the step up in grade & i will be helping myself to the place market as well,but for blog purposes it is a win lay.

18/8/2012

well what a treat for race fans this saturday,excellent meetings at newbury,newmarket & ripon abound with group race action at newbury being the highlight for race fans,here are my thoughts on the day along with today's lay selections...

today's lays are...

brown panther                   2.30 newbury       2nd @ 3.3

jacob cats                         3.40 newbury        3rd @ 3.4

lets pick up the baton with the top horse,brown panther,the apple of former england striker michael owen's eye & his stable stalwart.this horse is all stamina with a german pedigree & loves to get his toe in to the ground,at the minute it's 10.00am and the ground is drying out at a rapid rate of knott's..and as every minute goes by this horses chances get slimmer,granted he has some quality placed form but the biggest win he's registered upto now is a pokey little listed race at pontefract,he just falls short of top class & against some high quality animals he could just get out run in the closing stages,he'll more than likely plug on for a place over today's extra distance but no more than that in my opinion.the following selection is pretty straight forward,he performed with credit with a 6LB penalty LTO but no more & now he's been re-assesed he's carrying another 2LB in a better race.....couple that with the fact that this run is going to come plenty quick enough for him i think we have two decent lays for the day.

17/8/2012

firstly i have to comment on yesterday's result,whilst i accept that i got it completly wrong,what on earth were the other jocks doing giving ryan moore an 8 length lead on a gauranteed stayer!! no one took him on they just left him alone & came home like they were in two seperate races!!! when i get beat fair & sqaure i will take it on the chin but when you get beat by a piece of tactical genius you have to hold your hands up,onto today & i think i might have found a bit of a gem,satwa laird is a 6yo who has been plying his traded on his beloved a/w but today find's the switch back to turf on a mark he hasnt been competitive off since his 4yo campaign,in fact he hasnt been able to get his head in front on turf for the best part of two years now...so at the age of 6 is he going to find the relavent improvement?? my guess is a confident no!!!

today's lays are...

satwa laird                                5.40 newbury                unpl @ 4.8

16/8/2012

today's lays are...

sequence                    2.40 newmarket                   

today we are laying the quenn's runner sequence so hopefully her madge wont be putting me in the tower when this gets beat!!! :-) LTO it won a 12 furlong contest & was doing all his best work with 2 furlongs to run,up until then it seemed all over the place & only gathered his thoughts entering the final furlong,i was looking for it to step up in trip if anything which is why im surprised to see it re-appear over 10 furlongs on a tightish track like newmarket.i think this contest could be all over by the time he gets in gear as its taking on better rivals who look alot sharper over today's trip,the slight raise in grade/weight combined with the step down in trip means he is a confident lay today.

15/8/2012

today's lays are....

striker torres                     4.55 beverley         unpl @ 4.8


right then lets get straight down to the bare bones of this selection,if you look back thro its form its had three runs over & above it's beloved mile trip & they have resulted in being beaten a total of 63 lengths!!! today's trip of  ten furlongs will stretch his limited stamina to the max,i agree he has slipped to a pound lower mark than he won off & thats why he's favourite i would think now unless they absolutely crawl for a few furlongs im sure his stamina will snap & we'll see him weaken to be well beaten.this is a win lay selection for blog purposes but im really strong on this as a lay & will be dipping into the place market as well.

14/8/2012

i have two lays for today,both in the place markets which should be relativly short in the betting,both of which are pretty confident selections...

today's PLACE lays are....

almaty express                        2.00 bath       unpl @ 2.8
schmooze                                4.20 ayr        2ND @ 1.9*

13/8/2012

today's lays are....

jamarjo                                 5.00 kempton         WON @ 3.1*
spartan spirit                        5.30 kempton             2nd @ 2.8

12/8/2012

today's lays are....

cristoforo columbus                         3.50 curragh           unpl @ 2.2

just the one lay today but a quite confident one at that,the forecast soft ground is going to bog this colt down like it did last time out,i wouldnt want to be backing this until it goes on quicker ground so i think there maybe a few trips across the water for him in the search of better ground in the future but as far as today goes i'll gladly take him on at forecast cramped odds...

11/8/2012

morning & welcome to today's blog on saturday the 11th of august,today see's the shergar cup at ascot & i think we've found three decent lays for the day,they are...


today's lays are....

zero money                             2.05 ascot        unpl @ 5.4
john louis                                3.15 ascot        unpl @ 7.2
springinmystep                        3.50 ascot        unpl @ 6.6

sorry about the prices but i meant to put them up as place lays,for blog puposes i will treat them as win lays as it was my fault i didnt check.

today ive selected an E/W lucky 15 for the win selections,they are...

today's win lucky 15 is....

elnawin                                 2.05 ascot
ahzeemah                             2.40 ascot
ittirad                                   3.15 ascot
big note                               3.50 ascot

good luck with whatever you decide today & keep smiling!!!!!!!!!!!

10/8/2012

welcome to my new look blog!! basically this is where i put my thoughts for the days racing down on paper for the world to read & either agree or disagree with!!! upto now ive tried a few different angle's with the blog,mainly registering my lay selections which have proved quite popular & showed a healthy profit to level stakes.now i will try & put my reasons & thinking down for all to either agree or disagree with!!lol
to start with i have to say that i think today's racing is very poor fayre for a friday,but then again bad workmen always blame there tools so if this is what wheve got to work with then so be it.i have one place lay & one win lay today,they are....

WIN LAY....

luctor emergo                    2.30 musselburgh              unpl @ 4.2


PLACE LAY....

night trade                         3.40 brighton                   unpl @ 4.4


now we move onto our BACK selection's for the day,these selections i will be hash tagging them #mallardmillions selections,just for the fun of it really!!!! :-)
i will also be listing my selections for the two tipping comps. that i enter on twitter,i wont be logging these selections as the two people that run the comps. @pigeonisland & @glennphil2010 do a fantastic job of that already!!

#teamnaps selection:                  kingsdesire                    7.50 newmarket

#pigeonswoop4 selections:        another citizen               3.40 brighton
                                                 oratorian                         4.10 brighton
                                                 thecornishcowboy           4.40 brighton
                                                  thundering home            5.10 brighton

i wish you all good luck for the day & hopefully the coffers will have a few more pounds in than when we started!

regards
ian

9/8/2012

today's lays are....

touch gold                              3.10 haydock             unpl @ 2.9
sheena's dream                     4.00 yarmouth            WON @ 2.4*

8/8/2012

today's lays are....

wild sauce                        3.10 newcastle                WON @ 3.6*
eastward ho                     3.40 newcastle                  unpl @ 3.9
the cornish cowboy          4.20 brighton                    unpl @ 5.8
sunny side up                   4.30 pontefract                WON @3.1*

7/8/2012

today's lays are....

itrie ute                                    3.10 wolverhampton                 unpl @ 3.3
griffin point                               3.30 bath                               WON @ 2.7*
courtesy call                             3.40 wolverhampton              WON @ 3.1*
meetings man                           3.50 catterick                          unpl @ 3.1
crimson queen                          4.00 bath                                2nd @ 2.1

missing page

before anyone starts jumping up & down i know the 5/8/2012 page is missing,ive deleted it by mistake & am trying to recover it,the results have been logged & will be added shortly...

6/8/2012

first of all i would like to take this opportunity to apologise to followers for the abismal start to the month that the blog has had,this culminated yesterday with a short list of 14,12 unplaced,1 placed & that bloody winner!!! to say it was frustrating is an understaement!! all i can say is i hope you appreciate my honesty & hopefully we'll power on for the month from here.

today's lays are....

venetian view                                     3.00 kempton       WON @ 2.4*
pulverise                                            4.45 ripon               3rd @ 5.2


lets go from the top then,this already gelded son of amadeus wolf has the look of a horse that hasn't trained on at all from last year,being beaten a total of 77 length's this term since taking a CD nursery.he really hasn't shown any interest this term at all & off a rating of 80 (i see him more of a 65 rated performer) and having to give weight all round i can see him struggling for the rest of the season to be honest.granted he's downgraded today into a claimer but it is a very decent race for the standard & unless something has happened to liven him up immensly i cant see him getting his nose in front today.onto the second selection & this american bred stoute trained maiden has had four runs upto now & achieved a rating of 82.im putting this up as a lay more on the strength of at least 3/4 of his rivals & the fact that i dont think this step up in trip has been what he's  looking for.he finished behind hippy hippy shake LTO but never really got a shot at the 86 rated rival & is from a shadwell family that takes time,he could still be plodding round maiden's at the end of the season.

4/8/2012

today's lays are....

the fugue                  3.15 goodwood                 WON @ 3.8*

quite difficult to find decent lays today with there being big fields in the big handicaps with 10/1 the field but were quite happy to take on the fugue against the older generation today.her pedigree is all stamina being by a sadlers wells mare out of dansili and if anything i was looking at her stepping up in trip not back.the rain thats fell this morning is also against her & stable jockey william buick chooses stablemate izzy top over her.normally i dont take any notice of jockey bookings but you have to respect this shrewd yard.all in all i think things will happen far to quickly today for this filly to get competitive today.

3/8/2012

today's lays are....

gatewood                              2.00 goodwood          unpl @ 2.9

the set up of this race amazes me & the suggested betting even more,i agree gatewood has
improved & is still improving,but to win this with the form it has shown upto now will take a herculian task.
the facts are coming into this on the back of two handicap victory's really should not be good enough,its only ten weeks ago he was contesting h'caps,good ones i agree...but h'caps never the less.where going to take a line of form with black spirit,a good yardstick of clive cox's.on the 1st of june gatewood beat him a length recieving 9lbs....21 days later gatewood beat him a neck recieving 2lbs,which by my calculations gives gatewood about a 3lb improvement between runs,he's now rated 104...which i think is on the high side but he meats at least four rivals today capable of solid G2/G3 form,meaning he needs to find around 10lb to get competitive today...which is very unlikely over 2 furlongs further than he's raced already.many horses can be deceptive,running on  at the end of races giving the impression that when stepped up in trip they will relish it but then tend to hit a wall once racing over further which i think this son of galileo falls into.i'm putting this up as a win lay but i'll be helping myself to some of the place market as well.


today's PLACE lays are....

fulbright                               3.10 goodwood            WON @ 2.9*

this colt has the a very similiar make up to the stable's scatter dice,a succesful lay for us earlier in the week,on the back of 3 very hard runs in the last 24 days & with a 6lb penalty this colt really is going to struggle with todays race conditions,to start with he's going 2 furlongs further than his last two victories & against his elders,who he has mainly struggled against this year.i feel this horse has to be up with the pace & in today's field getting an easy lead is not going to happen,horses (with the exception maybe of frankel!) are animals,not machines & this mark johnston trained colt may need to put his feet up for a few weeks  to get back to his best,which would still see him struggle against today's rivals.

2/8/2012

today's lays are....

master of war                     2.45 goodwood                 2nd @ 3.8

right then lets get stuck straight into the goodwood card today kicking off with this chestnut son of compton place,to start with not really anything to get excited about in the breeding stakes & his sire has struggled in recent times producing performers in the late 50's early 60 marks.he holds an entry in the 7f champagne stakes & certainly looks like he will need a step up in trip after winning a very "hollow" listed race LTO.
the ground was bottomless that day & he didnt do anything quickly,but at the same time he didnt need to as the opposition was floundering in the mud.he was the stable second string that day & i cant help but feel that he's way down the pecking order of hannon's juvenile team & at likely cramped odds is well worth taking on on this livelier ground & against much stronger opposition.


today's PLACE lays are....

opinion                             2.15 goodwood                  unpl @ 2.9

im taking a form line with this horse literally & this should see him well beaten off todays mark of 90,he won LTO in a C3 at sandown & needed the drop in grade IMO to get his head in front after finishing 5th here beaten over 5L by grandeur,he does have a weight pull today but he was quite simply "outclassed" that day & after having the run of the race under ryan moore he weakened quite noticeably in the final furlong,a doubtful stayer,question marks over the ground & a much stronger race make up into a confident place lay for me.

1/8/2012

today's lays are....

olympic glory                    2.35 goodwood        

well a new month brings a new dawn & new hope....well thats what im telling myself anyway!!! the first selection to hopefully bite the dust today will be this bay son of choisir.LTO at newmarket on very heavy going he beat birdman & others in todays line up but had very much the run of the race that day,hughes had his mind more or less made up for him that day & he certainly wont get things his own way today & the race looks to have more strength in depth,at newmarket there was quite a bit of dead wood after the first four home where as today not only is he re-opposed by the first four home but throw into the mix the gosden & godolphin beast's recent impressive victories give's this the look of a very solid race,when it comes to listed/group races the betting always seems to be highest rated....fav....second highest rated....second fav.....etc,etc,this seldom works out however & especially in 2-y-o races but all in all a very good lay to get the month rolling.


today's PLACE lays are....

scatter dice                        3.45 goodwood      

moving on to the big handicap of the day & this one jumped off the page at me,more to do with the fact that it's had three very hard races in her last three runs more than anything else,she carries a 6lb penalty for her last win & i feel this could be the nail in the coffin for this horses winning run,fair enough darren egan claims 5 but he did the same when it ran last time so the view that his claim outweigh's the penalty are erradicated.add this to the fact that this is a stronger race than she won LTO & in my view she needs to improve around 10lb to get competitive today,granted she has some improvement in her still but after three hard races,not today thanks!

please be aware that this blog is my view only,you may disagree & wish to back/lay the selection's,the choice is yours,any constructive comments will be gratefully recieved and please remember,do not gamble with money you cant afford to lose,i do this for a living & am still learning every day....think on...

regards

ian