cheltenham day three 2015

quiet day today for me after the roller coaster of day one but don poli again made me a meagre profit on the day after simply ned ran a respectable race in the champion in fifth but no more than that. two days in though & two days with a shade of profit after pretty much not getting an awful lot right i'll take all day but i've got three e/w fancies tomorrow so hopefully some decent profit.


BALDER SUCCESS 2.40 (nap) 8/1 paddy power

insane springs to mind considering his bare form at cheltenham is FUF but if you judge the race on bare form he has to be in there with a major chance over what i consider his best trip. fourth in the tingle creek behind the one two in todays champion chase then finishing second to special tiara, third in todays champion chase. in behind on both occasions was third intention who since came out & beat arkle thjird jossies hill, as you can see this is serious form in the book. he then effortlessly beat fox appeal when stepped up in trip who again backed up on his next run with a solid run off a mark of 149 in a handicap. then he got his chase G1 in the book last time with a solid run in the betfair chase & hes now three from three over 2m4f+ over fences. the course form has to be a worry but for me he has the form in & looks good.


BLUE FASHION 3.20 (nb) 14/1 paddy power 

again the form this one has in the book is standout for me. was two lengths behind current title holder more of that trying to give him 6lb which we now know was a near impossible task & tyen runner up behind subsequent champion hurdle winner faugheen, ok he was never going to trouble him bu the the fact is in this country hes only ever been beaten by proven G1 championship winning horses. the trip is an obvious concern & also the drying ground but at the prices i think he looks a cracking e/w bet as on pedigree hes got every chance of getting it.


EDGARDO SOL 4.00 (iwac) 25/1 paddy power

quite simply im convinced theres a big handicap in this lad & hes knocked on the door on more than one occasion this season. im hoping the drying ground will be just what he needs after a couple of runs on soft the last twice and out runs his price into a place at the very least.


hopefully all three give a good account & if balder had some course form i'd be over him like a tramp on chips but i'd just play the three at level stakes e/w & an e/w trixie to be honest & best of luck if you follow. again these are just my thoughts & in no way am i recommending you follow or invest. 

cheltenham day two 2015

well it can't get any worse than today that much i do know! mullins hot pot after hot pot going in & a new pair of pants where needed after UDS demolished the arkle field after laying the first two jollys & things had to pick up. the druids nephew was a welcome winner & then it was back to the lay plan.. only to watch faugheen play with them in the champion & bound up the hill in effortless fashion & it was time to dispense with the underpants & just replace them with a nappy at this stage!! so what to do..lay annie for the sweep as planned? it was a case of in for a penny in for a pound & rounding the home turn the nappy was pretty much full to bursting until the gambling gods intervened and what happened at the last well we all know the answer to that. i believe though over a season your luck will even itself out & theres plenty ive backed that have fell at the last with the race at there mercy as annie had today. i'm the first to hold my hands up & admit i got the day completely wrong though & with both ruby & annie getting up safely to fight another day i was quite happy to count my minimal profit on the day & count myself a very lucky boy. onto tomorrow & its champion chase day so thats where we'll kick off..


3.20 cheltenham 2m Queen mother champion chase (Grade 1)

this is basically the clash that we wanted to see last year the sire against the sprinter when both at the peak of there powers but alas it never happened. both had questions to answer after reappearances and sire de grugy sort of went some way to repairing his reputation when winning a mediocre handicap which i find amazing that timeform rate as probably the best 2m run by a chaser this season i seen one of theres people say on at the races recently. he beat two pretty exposed nine & ten year olds last time & whilst he ran off a mark of 172 that day thats all well and good provided the horses he ran against also ran to there marks which i very much doubt considering grey golds penultimate run was when stone last behind dodging bullets & sprinter sacre in the clarence house. so onto dodging bullets whos form in the spring (march/april) reads 4-6-9-7 & after three tries at the festival is yet to register a place, cant have him at all. next up is the mullins festival specialist champagne fever who strangely i see people say should have won the arkle..why? was beaten by a better horse on the day for me, ok that horse is a lunatic but fever jumped fine, had the run of the race so not really sure what else could have gone in his favour to be honest & wether you like it or not the stat is there that hes had four stabs at G1 company over fences on his dancecard & has yet to win but has a couple of comfortable victories in G2 company which tends me to swing towards he might be just short of taking a seat at the top table. now onto probably the horse that has excited me as near to how frankel made me feel in his pomp in the shape of sprinter sacre. i see alot of what i class as good judges saying he's finished after one comeback run & it surprises me to be honest. one thing that i will conceed is that being a french bred he isn't going to get better with age thats for sure, they tend to peak early & finish early where as english & irish bred horses tend to get better with age so thats one negative, but not a game changing one. now you have to bare in mind that this is a horse that they basically had to re-write the handicap for because he was that good & an official BHA rating of 188 is something we wont see for a very long time. back in his heyday this horse had muscles on his earlobes & muscles on top of his muscles he looked that well on every occasion & simply on his come back he didnt but after a year off he wasn't ever going to be knocked about & bazza G was far from hard on him & quite simply racing needs champions & i hope & prey he comes there swinging off the bridle round the bend & the crowd gasp at one of his athletic leaps at the second last as he puts the peasants to the sword but alas thats a dream at the moment but the 3/1 may look massive around half past three tomorrow. mr mole is a handicapper trying to make the step up & his G2 win doesn't read great taking into the sire de grugy factor & him not running his race. its taken a while but my fancy for the race is the nicky richards trained simply ned. never out of the first three in nine completed chase starts he ran a cracker in a Grade one over in ireland on unsuitable ground last time out & will be seen to far better effect tomorrows quicker surface. on his penultimate start he had dodging bullets a head behind in third in the shloer chase here at cheltenham so the course should have no fears & hes also been given a short break to freshen him up as hes won three from four completed starts on the back of a 60+ day break. with alot of this field with far more questions than answers against there name he looks to be the value play to me.

simply ned e/w @ 20/1 available with paddy power

cheltenham day one 2015

well it's finally here! pretty much what the whole NH season revolves around is the next four days in the cotswolds. thousands will make the pilgrimage.. there will be tears, laughter and the odd pint of guiness  sunk i'd imagine from our friends across the irish sea but as long as they all come home safe & sound to battle another day i think every race fan will settle for that outcome. i'm going to concentrate on the four Grade one's tomorrow & quite simply..i'm getting after these supposed mullins "good things" like a sniper in the trees!! here are my thoughts..


1.30 cheltenham Supreme Novices hurdle 2m 110y (Grade 1)

ok straight off the bat this douvan i have to take on simply for a horse that has beaten trees hes a ridiculous price. fair enough he has been visually impressive like all these hot pots have & thats why they've been backed accordingly but if i ran round the block against an 85 year old man the chances are i'd look pretty impressive...let me run against a man whos semi fit & i'll be blowing like that poxy at the races express we keep seeing on those annoying adverts! all hes won is a G2 so far & the horse in third that day has come out & been spanked nearly 20 lengths in a mickey mouse non graded event. the one thing backers can cling to is that on debut he beat sizing john who came out & won a G1 but the favourite fell & the other mullins horse was pulled up which meant he beat sub lieutenant of sandra hughes' who was subsequently spanked 30 lengths by nichols canyon who was the favourite that fell in that race. the form just isnt very good in my opinion so that then brings us to what to back. i'll be laying douvan for the sweep as my main play as theres plenty running for me. the one i'm taken by is qewy of john fergusons. he was a decent tool on the flat rated 107 at peak following a listed race success for john oxx & whilst hes the most inexperienced over timber in the field he was very impressive beating a decent tool last time & looks fair e/w value to me.


2.05 cheltenham Arkle challenge trophy chase 2m (Grade 1)

now this favourite i will be laying purely as i dont think any horse should be odds on in a championship novice event at cheltenham on his first attempt there but that said of the four mullins hot pots this is probably the most likely winner of the four. there are plenty of reasons to get him beat though as his race comments all read "made all" and pretty much hes had an uncontested lead in every race, thats not going to happen tomorrow. i was in a similiar camp with this one as i was with douvan..that was until his last run when he slammed clarcam giving him weight..and he did it very effortlessly as well. he may well be the best horse in the race but a small lay none the less. so onto what to back and with UDS being so short it does open up some e/w value & again i think it could well be the ferguson horse this time three kingdoms. vibrato valtat is the second favourite & on recent runs you'd have to say he deserves his place there. three kingdoms however gave vibrato 10lb's & beat him over hurdles (completely different sphere i know) and only has half a length to find on there running in the wayward lad at kempton at christmas yet is four times the price? what i did like though is his last run. he made a complete hash of three out yet battled back like a lion to get the better of solar impulse with tony mccoy in the saddle for the first time & it could well be that he suits the horse & replacing brian hughes is mccoy worth half a length at the prices? i'd say yes & he'll be my e/w play in the race.


3.20 cheltenham Champion hurdle 2m 110y (Grade 1)

right then now it gets juicy!! right i'll ask you a very simple & straight forward question.. what price would the best horse faugheen has beaten be in tomorrows champion market? around 33's at shortest i reckon but again we're back to the being visually impressive scenario & unless your visually impared you would have to say hes been very impressive. my issue with him is i dont think 2m is his best trip, he can get away with it quality horses always will but at championship pace its a different ball game & he goes against some real battle hardened sorts here. add into that his best piece of form is arguably in last seasons neptune (over 2m 5f) where the runner up has yet to reappear the third has again yet to come out & the fourth horse has since managed a mind blowing second place off a mark of 141 in a novices handicap chase... not exactly earth shattering form and even his most ardent supporters have to agree with that. then theres the record of christmas hurdle winners in the champion, certainly not great by any stretch of the imagination and all of a sudden the case against him is growing. i know a few bookies that have the new one as a big loser in there books and thats a tough call now for me i must admit. last years winner jezki i'd of been all over if geraghty was on board & maybe switched the headgear around & dropped a pair of blinkers on him as the first time hood worked a treat in last years race & horses can get used to them. last years favourite hurricane fly & twice winner of the race in the past in 2011 & 2013 is quite literally an enigma & would bring the house down if he actually got home in front & when you consider the only time hes been out of the first three is when fourth in last years champion it just goes to show how strong a race this is. the old boy will get found out i'm sure but if there is a downpour of biblical proportions i wouldn't discount him running a place. all told its a difficult race for e/w betting with the three main protagonists all under 5/1 in the market so i'll just lay faugheen for the sweep..let battle commence!!!


4.00 cheltenham Mares hurdle 2m 4f (Grade 1)

i'm dubious as to how good a run annie's was in last years world hurdle but back against her own sex its hard to see past her. she has had an injury though & i'd be a layer rather than a backer. the one thing annie does do though is open up a bit of e/w value & i'd be tempted to have a small e/w play on the bottom mare the pirates queen. shes looked far better since stepped up in trip & theres a few here that have close form lines including bitofapuzzle & caroles spirit but again i liked the way this one battled to the line last time.


well my day revolves around getting the big four beat, douvan being the main one followed by faugheen & if i can get them beat then it will be pound seat johnny on day one & i'll take that. i'll play a small e/w patent on the following & see if the gods are looking down on me..


qewy 1.30 @ 12/1 bet365

three kingdoms 2.05 @ 25/1 bet365

the pirates queen 4.00 @ 20/1 bet365


please remember these are just my thoughts & my thoughts alone on tomorrows racing i'm not recommending you follow me or back/lay anything i've stated. you are all grown men/women & are more than capable of making your own decisions.


regards
ian