well it's finally here! pretty much what the whole NH season revolves around is the next four days in the cotswolds. thousands will make the pilgrimage.. there will be tears, laughter and the odd pint of guiness sunk i'd imagine from our friends across the irish sea but as long as they all come home safe & sound to battle another day i think every race fan will settle for that outcome. i'm going to concentrate on the four Grade one's tomorrow & quite simply..i'm getting after these supposed mullins "good things" like a sniper in the trees!! here are my thoughts..
1.30 cheltenham Supreme Novices hurdle 2m 110y (Grade 1)
ok straight off the bat this douvan i have to take on simply for a horse that has beaten trees hes a ridiculous price. fair enough he has been visually impressive like all these hot pots have & thats why they've been backed accordingly but if i ran round the block against an 85 year old man the chances are i'd look pretty impressive...let me run against a man whos semi fit & i'll be blowing like that poxy at the races express we keep seeing on those annoying adverts! all hes won is a G2 so far & the horse in third that day has come out & been spanked nearly 20 lengths in a mickey mouse non graded event. the one thing backers can cling to is that on debut he beat sizing john who came out & won a G1 but the favourite fell & the other mullins horse was pulled up which meant he beat sub lieutenant of sandra hughes' who was subsequently spanked 30 lengths by nichols canyon who was the favourite that fell in that race. the form just isnt very good in my opinion so that then brings us to what to back. i'll be laying douvan for the sweep as my main play as theres plenty running for me. the one i'm taken by is qewy of john fergusons. he was a decent tool on the flat rated 107 at peak following a listed race success for john oxx & whilst hes the most inexperienced over timber in the field he was very impressive beating a decent tool last time & looks fair e/w value to me.
2.05 cheltenham Arkle challenge trophy chase 2m (Grade 1)
now this favourite i will be laying purely as i dont think any horse should be odds on in a championship novice event at cheltenham on his first attempt there but that said of the four mullins hot pots this is probably the most likely winner of the four. there are plenty of reasons to get him beat though as his race comments all read "made all" and pretty much hes had an uncontested lead in every race, thats not going to happen tomorrow. i was in a similiar camp with this one as i was with douvan..that was until his last run when he slammed clarcam giving him weight..and he did it very effortlessly as well. he may well be the best horse in the race but a small lay none the less. so onto what to back and with UDS being so short it does open up some e/w value & again i think it could well be the ferguson horse this time three kingdoms. vibrato valtat is the second favourite & on recent runs you'd have to say he deserves his place there. three kingdoms however gave vibrato 10lb's & beat him over hurdles (completely different sphere i know) and only has half a length to find on there running in the wayward lad at kempton at christmas yet is four times the price? what i did like though is his last run. he made a complete hash of three out yet battled back like a lion to get the better of solar impulse with tony mccoy in the saddle for the first time & it could well be that he suits the horse & replacing brian hughes is mccoy worth half a length at the prices? i'd say yes & he'll be my e/w play in the race.
3.20 cheltenham Champion hurdle 2m 110y (Grade 1)
right then now it gets juicy!! right i'll ask you a very simple & straight forward question.. what price would the best horse faugheen has beaten be in tomorrows champion market? around 33's at shortest i reckon but again we're back to the being visually impressive scenario & unless your visually impared you would have to say hes been very impressive. my issue with him is i dont think 2m is his best trip, he can get away with it quality horses always will but at championship pace its a different ball game & he goes against some real battle hardened sorts here. add into that his best piece of form is arguably in last seasons neptune (over 2m 5f) where the runner up has yet to reappear the third has again yet to come out & the fourth horse has since managed a mind blowing second place off a mark of 141 in a novices handicap chase... not exactly earth shattering form and even his most ardent supporters have to agree with that. then theres the record of christmas hurdle winners in the champion, certainly not great by any stretch of the imagination and all of a sudden the case against him is growing. i know a few bookies that have the new one as a big loser in there books and thats a tough call now for me i must admit. last years winner jezki i'd of been all over if geraghty was on board & maybe switched the headgear around & dropped a pair of blinkers on him as the first time hood worked a treat in last years race & horses can get used to them. last years favourite hurricane fly & twice winner of the race in the past in 2011 & 2013 is quite literally an enigma & would bring the house down if he actually got home in front & when you consider the only time hes been out of the first three is when fourth in last years champion it just goes to show how strong a race this is. the old boy will get found out i'm sure but if there is a downpour of biblical proportions i wouldn't discount him running a place. all told its a difficult race for e/w betting with the three main protagonists all under 5/1 in the market so i'll just lay faugheen for the sweep..let battle commence!!!
4.00 cheltenham Mares hurdle 2m 4f (Grade 1)
i'm dubious as to how good a run annie's was in last years world hurdle but back against her own sex its hard to see past her. she has had an injury though & i'd be a layer rather than a backer. the one thing annie does do though is open up a bit of e/w value & i'd be tempted to have a small e/w play on the bottom mare the pirates queen. shes looked far better since stepped up in trip & theres a few here that have close form lines including bitofapuzzle & caroles spirit but again i liked the way this one battled to the line last time.
well my day revolves around getting the big four beat, douvan being the main one followed by faugheen & if i can get them beat then it will be pound seat johnny on day one & i'll take that. i'll play a small e/w patent on the following & see if the gods are looking down on me..
qewy 1.30 @ 12/1 bet365
three kingdoms 2.05 @ 25/1 bet365
the pirates queen 4.00 @ 20/1 bet365
please remember these are just my thoughts & my thoughts alone on tomorrows racing i'm not recommending you follow me or back/lay anything i've stated. you are all grown men/women & are more than capable of making your own decisions.
regards
ian
1.30 cheltenham Supreme Novices hurdle 2m 110y (Grade 1)
ok straight off the bat this douvan i have to take on simply for a horse that has beaten trees hes a ridiculous price. fair enough he has been visually impressive like all these hot pots have & thats why they've been backed accordingly but if i ran round the block against an 85 year old man the chances are i'd look pretty impressive...let me run against a man whos semi fit & i'll be blowing like that poxy at the races express we keep seeing on those annoying adverts! all hes won is a G2 so far & the horse in third that day has come out & been spanked nearly 20 lengths in a mickey mouse non graded event. the one thing backers can cling to is that on debut he beat sizing john who came out & won a G1 but the favourite fell & the other mullins horse was pulled up which meant he beat sub lieutenant of sandra hughes' who was subsequently spanked 30 lengths by nichols canyon who was the favourite that fell in that race. the form just isnt very good in my opinion so that then brings us to what to back. i'll be laying douvan for the sweep as my main play as theres plenty running for me. the one i'm taken by is qewy of john fergusons. he was a decent tool on the flat rated 107 at peak following a listed race success for john oxx & whilst hes the most inexperienced over timber in the field he was very impressive beating a decent tool last time & looks fair e/w value to me.
2.05 cheltenham Arkle challenge trophy chase 2m (Grade 1)
now this favourite i will be laying purely as i dont think any horse should be odds on in a championship novice event at cheltenham on his first attempt there but that said of the four mullins hot pots this is probably the most likely winner of the four. there are plenty of reasons to get him beat though as his race comments all read "made all" and pretty much hes had an uncontested lead in every race, thats not going to happen tomorrow. i was in a similiar camp with this one as i was with douvan..that was until his last run when he slammed clarcam giving him weight..and he did it very effortlessly as well. he may well be the best horse in the race but a small lay none the less. so onto what to back and with UDS being so short it does open up some e/w value & again i think it could well be the ferguson horse this time three kingdoms. vibrato valtat is the second favourite & on recent runs you'd have to say he deserves his place there. three kingdoms however gave vibrato 10lb's & beat him over hurdles (completely different sphere i know) and only has half a length to find on there running in the wayward lad at kempton at christmas yet is four times the price? what i did like though is his last run. he made a complete hash of three out yet battled back like a lion to get the better of solar impulse with tony mccoy in the saddle for the first time & it could well be that he suits the horse & replacing brian hughes is mccoy worth half a length at the prices? i'd say yes & he'll be my e/w play in the race.
3.20 cheltenham Champion hurdle 2m 110y (Grade 1)
right then now it gets juicy!! right i'll ask you a very simple & straight forward question.. what price would the best horse faugheen has beaten be in tomorrows champion market? around 33's at shortest i reckon but again we're back to the being visually impressive scenario & unless your visually impared you would have to say hes been very impressive. my issue with him is i dont think 2m is his best trip, he can get away with it quality horses always will but at championship pace its a different ball game & he goes against some real battle hardened sorts here. add into that his best piece of form is arguably in last seasons neptune (over 2m 5f) where the runner up has yet to reappear the third has again yet to come out & the fourth horse has since managed a mind blowing second place off a mark of 141 in a novices handicap chase... not exactly earth shattering form and even his most ardent supporters have to agree with that. then theres the record of christmas hurdle winners in the champion, certainly not great by any stretch of the imagination and all of a sudden the case against him is growing. i know a few bookies that have the new one as a big loser in there books and thats a tough call now for me i must admit. last years winner jezki i'd of been all over if geraghty was on board & maybe switched the headgear around & dropped a pair of blinkers on him as the first time hood worked a treat in last years race & horses can get used to them. last years favourite hurricane fly & twice winner of the race in the past in 2011 & 2013 is quite literally an enigma & would bring the house down if he actually got home in front & when you consider the only time hes been out of the first three is when fourth in last years champion it just goes to show how strong a race this is. the old boy will get found out i'm sure but if there is a downpour of biblical proportions i wouldn't discount him running a place. all told its a difficult race for e/w betting with the three main protagonists all under 5/1 in the market so i'll just lay faugheen for the sweep..let battle commence!!!
4.00 cheltenham Mares hurdle 2m 4f (Grade 1)
i'm dubious as to how good a run annie's was in last years world hurdle but back against her own sex its hard to see past her. she has had an injury though & i'd be a layer rather than a backer. the one thing annie does do though is open up a bit of e/w value & i'd be tempted to have a small e/w play on the bottom mare the pirates queen. shes looked far better since stepped up in trip & theres a few here that have close form lines including bitofapuzzle & caroles spirit but again i liked the way this one battled to the line last time.
well my day revolves around getting the big four beat, douvan being the main one followed by faugheen & if i can get them beat then it will be pound seat johnny on day one & i'll take that. i'll play a small e/w patent on the following & see if the gods are looking down on me..
qewy 1.30 @ 12/1 bet365
three kingdoms 2.05 @ 25/1 bet365
the pirates queen 4.00 @ 20/1 bet365
please remember these are just my thoughts & my thoughts alone on tomorrows racing i'm not recommending you follow me or back/lay anything i've stated. you are all grown men/women & are more than capable of making your own decisions.
regards
ian
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