its been a while but i thought i'd throw something together on a subject that seems to be on every punters lips & thats jockeys. now its obviously very easy to criticise jockeys from an armchair when you have no clue about how the job should be done in the first place and the first thing you hear when a bad ride happens are claims of skulduggery. firstly this is a job for these people, like others do day in day out. can anyone hold there hands up say they've never made a mistake at work? i cant i know that much. how many have actually sat on a horse? a fraction of a percent i'd guess. now there is obviously the side to it that these people are doing this day in day out so will obviously be better at it than those that have never sat on a horse, we know that. but when people sit there ripping apprentices apart you have to question these people. obviously nine times out of ten its pocket talk but if your lumping on an inexperienced jockey you should really have a long look in the mirror as thing game clearly isn't for you. if these young future stars of our game aren't given a chance how will they learn? or do people think that as soon as they get in a saddle they become lester piggot overnight? of course they don't and now i'll tell you a story. i have been in this game seriously for the best part of 20 years and as it got more serious i thought to myself "if these beasts are carrying my money day in day out i want to know how they work" so off i took myself down to a local riding school and booked a block of 15 lessons (instructor was attractive but that was bye the bye!) on my first lesson i arrived full of gusto thinking lets get this done & as they wheeled the horses out i thought yep that one will do.. no.. ok then this one.. no.. and on it went..now i'm a biggish chap, 6' 4" quite well built but jesus christ on a bike you should of seen this thing they brought out for me dear lord it made a shire horse look like a show pony!!! couldn't get on with a leg up had to use a step ladder i shit you not!! in fact this thing wouldn't have looked out of place on the set of jurrasic park! off we went nice steady walk thought whats all the fuss about to be honest.. the following week came about so off i trundled for lesson two, bit of trotting today ian? no bother i got this.. YEAH RIGHT! trying to be clever i accidentally gave him a kick in the belly trying to turn & holy bollox ive never shit myself so much in my entire life!!! reared like tonto the thing did dumping me in the shit that he'd deposited not two minutes earlier! right then we'll see about this i thought get me that ladder i'm back on! that was mistake number two... so this time i just sat for a minute trying to get the measure of this beast between my legs (hubba hubba!! ;-) that clearly didn't have plans to become my best friend. off we walked again this time my feet where not moving..in fact my whole body was pretty frozen with fear i wont lie. after dismounting i really did feel a bit shaky but was determined to get a handle on this. lesson three came around & off we went again this time we raised a trot..probably around 3 miles an hour if that. this was enough for me game over the horse had won & got the better of me. i think back to this when i see jockeys flying round at over 30mph risking life & limb and quite simply i find it very difficult to criticise. one minute there a hero thirty minutes later there lying face down in the turf, really is a tough game. when race riding if a gap closes on you at 30mph sometimes you just have to suck it and see..it doesn't make it a bad ride its just how things pan out during a race. having the door closed on me at 3mph was more than enough to make me change my pants so give them a break.. there trying to earn a living like the rest of us.
Thursday 11 June 2015
Friday 17 April 2015
greenham preview
looks by far the strongest of the trials so far with dual group one & multiple group winners in the field. belardo is a G1 winner but he was beaten by both estidhkaar & ivawood last year & will have to have improved over the winter as although he had estidhkaar behind him in the dewhurst the hannon runner looked below par that day & could well have gone over the top. being by lope de vega he is interesting as a 3yo & i will be watching his offspring closely as i have them down as improving with time. toocoolforschool brings a fair level of form to the table but soft ground may see him improve as he did seem to relish it last time out. muhaarar has it to find with favourite ivawood on there 2yo form & it was a sub standard gimcrack he won & looked a cheap G2. then we have the favourite ivawood & whilst hes obviously decent i'm still not sure he's beaten much & there has to be a massive doubt about him staying this trip on his pedigree as these zebedees dont seem to want to go a yard further than 6f which leaves us with flaming spear. i'm not sure his maiden win will amount to much but he could only beat what was there & he did it well. hes by lope de vega out of a zafonic mare so the step up in trip should more than suit & he was backed as though defeat was out of the question on debut so is clearly held in high regard & with nine runners playing three places he would be my e/w play at around 8/1.
regards
teamform
Wednesday 15 April 2015
newmarket day two
not a bad day on the blog today getting the o'brien fav beat & also osaila winning at 4/1 meant a profitable day. three G3 races at HQ tomorrow & tidy stuff to be fair so hopefully we can give you a few pointers.
4.05 newmarket 1m craven stakes G3
classic trials come thick & fast over the next couple of weeks & this looks a half decent race. the top horse kool kompany well connections of that whoever the kool kompany partnership is must be sweating on the big money they paid for this fella, in fact previous connections take a bow as you knew! i'm not a fan of the sire & he throws up doubtful stayers & the money that this exchanged hands for considering at the time he was a winner of a weak G2 contest is baffling to me. in fact it will be the ultimate piss take when the middleham park runner finishes in front of it & does it out of some prize money! aces could be a player depending on how hes progressed over the winter whilst moheet beat nothing on debut (calling them trees would be unfair to trees!) war envoy gets a BHA rating of 111 yet has only won a maiden & war fronts another sire who i have issues with stamina wise so i've a line put through him. nafaqa on the other hand beat subsequent G2 winner toocoolforschool in a listed contest before being outpointed himself in a G2 by subsequent racing post trophy winner elm park so the form is rock solid. he'll bounce off this ground & with what is arguably the best form in the book should take all the beating here.
4.40 newmarket 1m 1f earl of sefton stakes G3
another cracking little contest this one & it looks to me a straight shoot out between french navy & grandeur.educate looks a handicapper maybe a listed contender at best but he'll need to find improvement at the age of six which is unlikely. glory awaits could go better on the firmer ground but he carries a 5lb penalty for winning a mickey mouse G2 race in outer mongolia or somewhere like that & the form equates to about a C3 conditions race in this country so you have to feel he'll struggle in the grade. if you take arods run in the dante literally he'd have to be in the mix but his fourth in the derby is a bit dodgy as he ran on past beaten horses & if you look in behind him that day there are horses like red galileo (been dropped into conditions grade since & still cant win) true story (listed race winner at best) & fascinating rock (clearly didnt stay) so the form is dubious to say the least. since then hes won a three runner race at leicester that i probably could of won then beat just the pacemaker home in the juddmonte, doesn't help that hes with a trainer that cant train ivy up a wall either & i couldnt have him here.mondialiste could be anything but the ground may be a bit on the quick side for him looking at his french form. the same comments have to apply to french navy as well so our selection has to be grandeur who with solid form in the book & will relish the surface the G1 winner over in the states is taken to show his class here.
we would go for..
nafaqa 4.05 & grandeur 4.40 level stakes win bets & a smaller stake win double.
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teamform
4.05 newmarket 1m craven stakes G3
classic trials come thick & fast over the next couple of weeks & this looks a half decent race. the top horse kool kompany well connections of that whoever the kool kompany partnership is must be sweating on the big money they paid for this fella, in fact previous connections take a bow as you knew! i'm not a fan of the sire & he throws up doubtful stayers & the money that this exchanged hands for considering at the time he was a winner of a weak G2 contest is baffling to me. in fact it will be the ultimate piss take when the middleham park runner finishes in front of it & does it out of some prize money! aces could be a player depending on how hes progressed over the winter whilst moheet beat nothing on debut (calling them trees would be unfair to trees!) war envoy gets a BHA rating of 111 yet has only won a maiden & war fronts another sire who i have issues with stamina wise so i've a line put through him. nafaqa on the other hand beat subsequent G2 winner toocoolforschool in a listed contest before being outpointed himself in a G2 by subsequent racing post trophy winner elm park so the form is rock solid. he'll bounce off this ground & with what is arguably the best form in the book should take all the beating here.
4.40 newmarket 1m 1f earl of sefton stakes G3
another cracking little contest this one & it looks to me a straight shoot out between french navy & grandeur.educate looks a handicapper maybe a listed contender at best but he'll need to find improvement at the age of six which is unlikely. glory awaits could go better on the firmer ground but he carries a 5lb penalty for winning a mickey mouse G2 race in outer mongolia or somewhere like that & the form equates to about a C3 conditions race in this country so you have to feel he'll struggle in the grade. if you take arods run in the dante literally he'd have to be in the mix but his fourth in the derby is a bit dodgy as he ran on past beaten horses & if you look in behind him that day there are horses like red galileo (been dropped into conditions grade since & still cant win) true story (listed race winner at best) & fascinating rock (clearly didnt stay) so the form is dubious to say the least. since then hes won a three runner race at leicester that i probably could of won then beat just the pacemaker home in the juddmonte, doesn't help that hes with a trainer that cant train ivy up a wall either & i couldnt have him here.mondialiste could be anything but the ground may be a bit on the quick side for him looking at his french form. the same comments have to apply to french navy as well so our selection has to be grandeur who with solid form in the book & will relish the surface the G1 winner over in the states is taken to show his class here.
we would go for..
nafaqa 4.05 & grandeur 4.40 level stakes win bets & a smaller stake win double.
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teamform
Monday 13 April 2015
newmarket day one
A cracking card for the first day of newmarkets meet with a couple of listed races & a group 3 contest. the turf season really starts to get going now the nationals out the way & this meeting is always a good one to have the notebook handy and ideally you'd want to be paddock side on days like this but unfortunately we cant have everything. the one thing i will say though is with most of the races confined to 3yo's an air of caution needs to be taken as if a horse hasn't trained on from two to three then it won't win another race it really is as simple as that. i've seen some horses have decent 2yo careers then not be able to win a claimer, either they just don't progress physically or sometimes mentally but either way before putting strong money down you'd either want an in at a stable & know it was going well or for it to have had at least a decent run as a 3yo in the bag.
here's our thoughts anyway..
2.55 newmarket 6f conditions race
i think theres alot of horses in this with false official ratings to start with as all the horses rated in triple figures all ran in sales races last term & whilst there competitive theres an awful lot of dead wood in them at times & its interesting to note that the horse which seems to hold all the form lines secret brief of godolphins finished last when stepped out of sales race company & into group class (admittedly a G1 though) which tells me the formmay well not be all that. the horse i'd want to take on would be the forecast favourite of ballydoyle's & how he gets a rating of 106 i have no idea. he was behind both bossy guest & ballymore castle here at newmarket back in october & its even more of a mystery how he's favourite as well. the only real thing he does have going for him is a fitness edge over his rivals but i can't see them being left that short of work they won't be able to do themselves justice & the facts are he's had two stabs at this rowley mile course & was beaten ten lengths on the first attempt & was then last of six not beating a rival home in the middle park so it could well be that he either doesn'y like newmarket or just may not like travelling. theres not even alot to take from his recent maiden victory with the third horse being beaten in a weak maiden & the fourth horse home has been beaten off a mark off 74 in a handicap since so he would only have had to run to around 80 to win his maiden, at least 15lb below what will be needed to win this so a big step up is required. the problem with laying a horse is you have to have something to beat it & the sales race form apart i think this could go to the filly at the bottom with the weight allowance. she struggled in the lowther but that race is littered with pattern races winners & looks strong G2 form, some way above what would be required to win this. she also had a couple of decent performers in behind including a subsequent winner when second at salisbury & i may be tempted to lay the fav & back the filly but leave it so if the fav is beaten its a winning race for me.
3.30 newmarket 6f free handicap (listed)
a race that could well get tactical & the favourite is priced up more on what the horse he beat has done since taking the G3 acomb stakes & then running third in a G1 over in ireland but he treated him like a petulant child that day & just brushed him aside so could well be anything. jungle cat however could well get the run of the race on the front & if william buick can get the fractions right (which is debatable at times) he could kick on from the front & get these at it. there is always the chance the horse has been "godolphinised" with the switch from mark johnstons to charlie appleby but that seems to happen more when they send them over to meydan for whatever reason but alot of horses are never the same again. if you were desperate for a bet then maybe a small e/w on jacobs cats & possibly look at backing him in the without fav market but i'd want some value as theres as much chance of buick setting the wrong fractions & him tailing off but he did look a resolute type last year & surely even godolphin cant have put petrol in a diesel engine which they tend to have a habit of doing.
4.05 newmarket 7f nell gwyn stakes (Group 3)
dear lord 3yo fillies & not one of them has had a run as a 3yo!! we really are in bandit country here the two i have it between though are hugo palmers new providence & the richard hannon trained osaila. both have wins in G3 company to there name & only muraaqaba can boast the same so theres plenty in here with something to prove least of all the gosden filly lady correspondent who with an official rating of 77 looks to be up against it & whilst the second horse from its maiden landed a weak maiden the third horse has been beat twice since in the same grade & the next best perromance from the also rans that day is a fourth place in a wolverhampton handicap off a mark of 59 so the OR of 77 is generous in fact!! obviously theres always the chance that she will improve massively from that run bur she will need to..to the tune of around two stone!! personally i think osaila has the strongest form in the book with that third in the breeders cup a stand out but the stable form of hannons this past week has been sketchy to say the least which whilst off putting i dont think is alot to worry about but i'd be happier to see them have a winner. hugo palmers filly beat marsh hawk at salisbury with no excuses for the hannon runner that day so i see no reason why thats shorter in the betting apart from its connections (hughes rides). the godolphin filly beautiful romance had an eye catching debut but i've a feeling time will tell that she beat trees that day as theres nothing that has come out of the race with any significance so far. i'm tempted to stick with the C&D form of osaila & whilst not the most original selection she has the form in the book which is hard to go against.
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teamform
Wednesday 11 March 2015
cheltenham day three 2015
quiet day today for me after the roller coaster of day one but don poli again made me a meagre profit on the day after simply ned ran a respectable race in the champion in fifth but no more than that. two days in though & two days with a shade of profit after pretty much not getting an awful lot right i'll take all day but i've got three e/w fancies tomorrow so hopefully some decent profit.
BALDER SUCCESS 2.40 (nap) 8/1 paddy power
insane springs to mind considering his bare form at cheltenham is FUF but if you judge the race on bare form he has to be in there with a major chance over what i consider his best trip. fourth in the tingle creek behind the one two in todays champion chase then finishing second to special tiara, third in todays champion chase. in behind on both occasions was third intention who since came out & beat arkle thjird jossies hill, as you can see this is serious form in the book. he then effortlessly beat fox appeal when stepped up in trip who again backed up on his next run with a solid run off a mark of 149 in a handicap. then he got his chase G1 in the book last time with a solid run in the betfair chase & hes now three from three over 2m4f+ over fences. the course form has to be a worry but for me he has the form in & looks good.
BLUE FASHION 3.20 (nb) 14/1 paddy power
again the form this one has in the book is standout for me. was two lengths behind current title holder more of that trying to give him 6lb which we now know was a near impossible task & tyen runner up behind subsequent champion hurdle winner faugheen, ok he was never going to trouble him bu the the fact is in this country hes only ever been beaten by proven G1 championship winning horses. the trip is an obvious concern & also the drying ground but at the prices i think he looks a cracking e/w bet as on pedigree hes got every chance of getting it.
EDGARDO SOL 4.00 (iwac) 25/1 paddy power
quite simply im convinced theres a big handicap in this lad & hes knocked on the door on more than one occasion this season. im hoping the drying ground will be just what he needs after a couple of runs on soft the last twice and out runs his price into a place at the very least.
hopefully all three give a good account & if balder had some course form i'd be over him like a tramp on chips but i'd just play the three at level stakes e/w & an e/w trixie to be honest & best of luck if you follow. again these are just my thoughts & in no way am i recommending you follow or invest.
BALDER SUCCESS 2.40 (nap) 8/1 paddy power
insane springs to mind considering his bare form at cheltenham is FUF but if you judge the race on bare form he has to be in there with a major chance over what i consider his best trip. fourth in the tingle creek behind the one two in todays champion chase then finishing second to special tiara, third in todays champion chase. in behind on both occasions was third intention who since came out & beat arkle thjird jossies hill, as you can see this is serious form in the book. he then effortlessly beat fox appeal when stepped up in trip who again backed up on his next run with a solid run off a mark of 149 in a handicap. then he got his chase G1 in the book last time with a solid run in the betfair chase & hes now three from three over 2m4f+ over fences. the course form has to be a worry but for me he has the form in & looks good.
BLUE FASHION 3.20 (nb) 14/1 paddy power
again the form this one has in the book is standout for me. was two lengths behind current title holder more of that trying to give him 6lb which we now know was a near impossible task & tyen runner up behind subsequent champion hurdle winner faugheen, ok he was never going to trouble him bu the the fact is in this country hes only ever been beaten by proven G1 championship winning horses. the trip is an obvious concern & also the drying ground but at the prices i think he looks a cracking e/w bet as on pedigree hes got every chance of getting it.
EDGARDO SOL 4.00 (iwac) 25/1 paddy power
quite simply im convinced theres a big handicap in this lad & hes knocked on the door on more than one occasion this season. im hoping the drying ground will be just what he needs after a couple of runs on soft the last twice and out runs his price into a place at the very least.
hopefully all three give a good account & if balder had some course form i'd be over him like a tramp on chips but i'd just play the three at level stakes e/w & an e/w trixie to be honest & best of luck if you follow. again these are just my thoughts & in no way am i recommending you follow or invest.
Tuesday 10 March 2015
cheltenham day two 2015
well it can't get any worse than today that much i do know! mullins hot pot after hot pot going in & a new pair of pants where needed after UDS demolished the arkle field after laying the first two jollys & things had to pick up. the druids nephew was a welcome winner & then it was back to the lay plan.. only to watch faugheen play with them in the champion & bound up the hill in effortless fashion & it was time to dispense with the underpants & just replace them with a nappy at this stage!! so what to do..lay annie for the sweep as planned? it was a case of in for a penny in for a pound & rounding the home turn the nappy was pretty much full to bursting until the gambling gods intervened and what happened at the last well we all know the answer to that. i believe though over a season your luck will even itself out & theres plenty ive backed that have fell at the last with the race at there mercy as annie had today. i'm the first to hold my hands up & admit i got the day completely wrong though & with both ruby & annie getting up safely to fight another day i was quite happy to count my minimal profit on the day & count myself a very lucky boy. onto tomorrow & its champion chase day so thats where we'll kick off..
3.20 cheltenham 2m Queen mother champion chase (Grade 1)
this is basically the clash that we wanted to see last year the sire against the sprinter when both at the peak of there powers but alas it never happened. both had questions to answer after reappearances and sire de grugy sort of went some way to repairing his reputation when winning a mediocre handicap which i find amazing that timeform rate as probably the best 2m run by a chaser this season i seen one of theres people say on at the races recently. he beat two pretty exposed nine & ten year olds last time & whilst he ran off a mark of 172 that day thats all well and good provided the horses he ran against also ran to there marks which i very much doubt considering grey golds penultimate run was when stone last behind dodging bullets & sprinter sacre in the clarence house. so onto dodging bullets whos form in the spring (march/april) reads 4-6-9-7 & after three tries at the festival is yet to register a place, cant have him at all. next up is the mullins festival specialist champagne fever who strangely i see people say should have won the arkle..why? was beaten by a better horse on the day for me, ok that horse is a lunatic but fever jumped fine, had the run of the race so not really sure what else could have gone in his favour to be honest & wether you like it or not the stat is there that hes had four stabs at G1 company over fences on his dancecard & has yet to win but has a couple of comfortable victories in G2 company which tends me to swing towards he might be just short of taking a seat at the top table. now onto probably the horse that has excited me as near to how frankel made me feel in his pomp in the shape of sprinter sacre. i see alot of what i class as good judges saying he's finished after one comeback run & it surprises me to be honest. one thing that i will conceed is that being a french bred he isn't going to get better with age thats for sure, they tend to peak early & finish early where as english & irish bred horses tend to get better with age so thats one negative, but not a game changing one. now you have to bare in mind that this is a horse that they basically had to re-write the handicap for because he was that good & an official BHA rating of 188 is something we wont see for a very long time. back in his heyday this horse had muscles on his earlobes & muscles on top of his muscles he looked that well on every occasion & simply on his come back he didnt but after a year off he wasn't ever going to be knocked about & bazza G was far from hard on him & quite simply racing needs champions & i hope & prey he comes there swinging off the bridle round the bend & the crowd gasp at one of his athletic leaps at the second last as he puts the peasants to the sword but alas thats a dream at the moment but the 3/1 may look massive around half past three tomorrow. mr mole is a handicapper trying to make the step up & his G2 win doesn't read great taking into the sire de grugy factor & him not running his race. its taken a while but my fancy for the race is the nicky richards trained simply ned. never out of the first three in nine completed chase starts he ran a cracker in a Grade one over in ireland on unsuitable ground last time out & will be seen to far better effect tomorrows quicker surface. on his penultimate start he had dodging bullets a head behind in third in the shloer chase here at cheltenham so the course should have no fears & hes also been given a short break to freshen him up as hes won three from four completed starts on the back of a 60+ day break. with alot of this field with far more questions than answers against there name he looks to be the value play to me.
simply ned e/w @ 20/1 available with paddy power
3.20 cheltenham 2m Queen mother champion chase (Grade 1)
this is basically the clash that we wanted to see last year the sire against the sprinter when both at the peak of there powers but alas it never happened. both had questions to answer after reappearances and sire de grugy sort of went some way to repairing his reputation when winning a mediocre handicap which i find amazing that timeform rate as probably the best 2m run by a chaser this season i seen one of theres people say on at the races recently. he beat two pretty exposed nine & ten year olds last time & whilst he ran off a mark of 172 that day thats all well and good provided the horses he ran against also ran to there marks which i very much doubt considering grey golds penultimate run was when stone last behind dodging bullets & sprinter sacre in the clarence house. so onto dodging bullets whos form in the spring (march/april) reads 4-6-9-7 & after three tries at the festival is yet to register a place, cant have him at all. next up is the mullins festival specialist champagne fever who strangely i see people say should have won the arkle..why? was beaten by a better horse on the day for me, ok that horse is a lunatic but fever jumped fine, had the run of the race so not really sure what else could have gone in his favour to be honest & wether you like it or not the stat is there that hes had four stabs at G1 company over fences on his dancecard & has yet to win but has a couple of comfortable victories in G2 company which tends me to swing towards he might be just short of taking a seat at the top table. now onto probably the horse that has excited me as near to how frankel made me feel in his pomp in the shape of sprinter sacre. i see alot of what i class as good judges saying he's finished after one comeback run & it surprises me to be honest. one thing that i will conceed is that being a french bred he isn't going to get better with age thats for sure, they tend to peak early & finish early where as english & irish bred horses tend to get better with age so thats one negative, but not a game changing one. now you have to bare in mind that this is a horse that they basically had to re-write the handicap for because he was that good & an official BHA rating of 188 is something we wont see for a very long time. back in his heyday this horse had muscles on his earlobes & muscles on top of his muscles he looked that well on every occasion & simply on his come back he didnt but after a year off he wasn't ever going to be knocked about & bazza G was far from hard on him & quite simply racing needs champions & i hope & prey he comes there swinging off the bridle round the bend & the crowd gasp at one of his athletic leaps at the second last as he puts the peasants to the sword but alas thats a dream at the moment but the 3/1 may look massive around half past three tomorrow. mr mole is a handicapper trying to make the step up & his G2 win doesn't read great taking into the sire de grugy factor & him not running his race. its taken a while but my fancy for the race is the nicky richards trained simply ned. never out of the first three in nine completed chase starts he ran a cracker in a Grade one over in ireland on unsuitable ground last time out & will be seen to far better effect tomorrows quicker surface. on his penultimate start he had dodging bullets a head behind in third in the shloer chase here at cheltenham so the course should have no fears & hes also been given a short break to freshen him up as hes won three from four completed starts on the back of a 60+ day break. with alot of this field with far more questions than answers against there name he looks to be the value play to me.
simply ned e/w @ 20/1 available with paddy power
Monday 9 March 2015
cheltenham day one 2015
well it's finally here! pretty much what the whole NH season revolves around is the next four days in the cotswolds. thousands will make the pilgrimage.. there will be tears, laughter and the odd pint of guiness sunk i'd imagine from our friends across the irish sea but as long as they all come home safe & sound to battle another day i think every race fan will settle for that outcome. i'm going to concentrate on the four Grade one's tomorrow & quite simply..i'm getting after these supposed mullins "good things" like a sniper in the trees!! here are my thoughts..
1.30 cheltenham Supreme Novices hurdle 2m 110y (Grade 1)
ok straight off the bat this douvan i have to take on simply for a horse that has beaten trees hes a ridiculous price. fair enough he has been visually impressive like all these hot pots have & thats why they've been backed accordingly but if i ran round the block against an 85 year old man the chances are i'd look pretty impressive...let me run against a man whos semi fit & i'll be blowing like that poxy at the races express we keep seeing on those annoying adverts! all hes won is a G2 so far & the horse in third that day has come out & been spanked nearly 20 lengths in a mickey mouse non graded event. the one thing backers can cling to is that on debut he beat sizing john who came out & won a G1 but the favourite fell & the other mullins horse was pulled up which meant he beat sub lieutenant of sandra hughes' who was subsequently spanked 30 lengths by nichols canyon who was the favourite that fell in that race. the form just isnt very good in my opinion so that then brings us to what to back. i'll be laying douvan for the sweep as my main play as theres plenty running for me. the one i'm taken by is qewy of john fergusons. he was a decent tool on the flat rated 107 at peak following a listed race success for john oxx & whilst hes the most inexperienced over timber in the field he was very impressive beating a decent tool last time & looks fair e/w value to me.
2.05 cheltenham Arkle challenge trophy chase 2m (Grade 1)
now this favourite i will be laying purely as i dont think any horse should be odds on in a championship novice event at cheltenham on his first attempt there but that said of the four mullins hot pots this is probably the most likely winner of the four. there are plenty of reasons to get him beat though as his race comments all read "made all" and pretty much hes had an uncontested lead in every race, thats not going to happen tomorrow. i was in a similiar camp with this one as i was with douvan..that was until his last run when he slammed clarcam giving him weight..and he did it very effortlessly as well. he may well be the best horse in the race but a small lay none the less. so onto what to back and with UDS being so short it does open up some e/w value & again i think it could well be the ferguson horse this time three kingdoms. vibrato valtat is the second favourite & on recent runs you'd have to say he deserves his place there. three kingdoms however gave vibrato 10lb's & beat him over hurdles (completely different sphere i know) and only has half a length to find on there running in the wayward lad at kempton at christmas yet is four times the price? what i did like though is his last run. he made a complete hash of three out yet battled back like a lion to get the better of solar impulse with tony mccoy in the saddle for the first time & it could well be that he suits the horse & replacing brian hughes is mccoy worth half a length at the prices? i'd say yes & he'll be my e/w play in the race.
3.20 cheltenham Champion hurdle 2m 110y (Grade 1)
right then now it gets juicy!! right i'll ask you a very simple & straight forward question.. what price would the best horse faugheen has beaten be in tomorrows champion market? around 33's at shortest i reckon but again we're back to the being visually impressive scenario & unless your visually impared you would have to say hes been very impressive. my issue with him is i dont think 2m is his best trip, he can get away with it quality horses always will but at championship pace its a different ball game & he goes against some real battle hardened sorts here. add into that his best piece of form is arguably in last seasons neptune (over 2m 5f) where the runner up has yet to reappear the third has again yet to come out & the fourth horse has since managed a mind blowing second place off a mark of 141 in a novices handicap chase... not exactly earth shattering form and even his most ardent supporters have to agree with that. then theres the record of christmas hurdle winners in the champion, certainly not great by any stretch of the imagination and all of a sudden the case against him is growing. i know a few bookies that have the new one as a big loser in there books and thats a tough call now for me i must admit. last years winner jezki i'd of been all over if geraghty was on board & maybe switched the headgear around & dropped a pair of blinkers on him as the first time hood worked a treat in last years race & horses can get used to them. last years favourite hurricane fly & twice winner of the race in the past in 2011 & 2013 is quite literally an enigma & would bring the house down if he actually got home in front & when you consider the only time hes been out of the first three is when fourth in last years champion it just goes to show how strong a race this is. the old boy will get found out i'm sure but if there is a downpour of biblical proportions i wouldn't discount him running a place. all told its a difficult race for e/w betting with the three main protagonists all under 5/1 in the market so i'll just lay faugheen for the sweep..let battle commence!!!
4.00 cheltenham Mares hurdle 2m 4f (Grade 1)
i'm dubious as to how good a run annie's was in last years world hurdle but back against her own sex its hard to see past her. she has had an injury though & i'd be a layer rather than a backer. the one thing annie does do though is open up a bit of e/w value & i'd be tempted to have a small e/w play on the bottom mare the pirates queen. shes looked far better since stepped up in trip & theres a few here that have close form lines including bitofapuzzle & caroles spirit but again i liked the way this one battled to the line last time.
well my day revolves around getting the big four beat, douvan being the main one followed by faugheen & if i can get them beat then it will be pound seat johnny on day one & i'll take that. i'll play a small e/w patent on the following & see if the gods are looking down on me..
qewy 1.30 @ 12/1 bet365
three kingdoms 2.05 @ 25/1 bet365
the pirates queen 4.00 @ 20/1 bet365
please remember these are just my thoughts & my thoughts alone on tomorrows racing i'm not recommending you follow me or back/lay anything i've stated. you are all grown men/women & are more than capable of making your own decisions.
regards
ian
1.30 cheltenham Supreme Novices hurdle 2m 110y (Grade 1)
ok straight off the bat this douvan i have to take on simply for a horse that has beaten trees hes a ridiculous price. fair enough he has been visually impressive like all these hot pots have & thats why they've been backed accordingly but if i ran round the block against an 85 year old man the chances are i'd look pretty impressive...let me run against a man whos semi fit & i'll be blowing like that poxy at the races express we keep seeing on those annoying adverts! all hes won is a G2 so far & the horse in third that day has come out & been spanked nearly 20 lengths in a mickey mouse non graded event. the one thing backers can cling to is that on debut he beat sizing john who came out & won a G1 but the favourite fell & the other mullins horse was pulled up which meant he beat sub lieutenant of sandra hughes' who was subsequently spanked 30 lengths by nichols canyon who was the favourite that fell in that race. the form just isnt very good in my opinion so that then brings us to what to back. i'll be laying douvan for the sweep as my main play as theres plenty running for me. the one i'm taken by is qewy of john fergusons. he was a decent tool on the flat rated 107 at peak following a listed race success for john oxx & whilst hes the most inexperienced over timber in the field he was very impressive beating a decent tool last time & looks fair e/w value to me.
2.05 cheltenham Arkle challenge trophy chase 2m (Grade 1)
now this favourite i will be laying purely as i dont think any horse should be odds on in a championship novice event at cheltenham on his first attempt there but that said of the four mullins hot pots this is probably the most likely winner of the four. there are plenty of reasons to get him beat though as his race comments all read "made all" and pretty much hes had an uncontested lead in every race, thats not going to happen tomorrow. i was in a similiar camp with this one as i was with douvan..that was until his last run when he slammed clarcam giving him weight..and he did it very effortlessly as well. he may well be the best horse in the race but a small lay none the less. so onto what to back and with UDS being so short it does open up some e/w value & again i think it could well be the ferguson horse this time three kingdoms. vibrato valtat is the second favourite & on recent runs you'd have to say he deserves his place there. three kingdoms however gave vibrato 10lb's & beat him over hurdles (completely different sphere i know) and only has half a length to find on there running in the wayward lad at kempton at christmas yet is four times the price? what i did like though is his last run. he made a complete hash of three out yet battled back like a lion to get the better of solar impulse with tony mccoy in the saddle for the first time & it could well be that he suits the horse & replacing brian hughes is mccoy worth half a length at the prices? i'd say yes & he'll be my e/w play in the race.
3.20 cheltenham Champion hurdle 2m 110y (Grade 1)
right then now it gets juicy!! right i'll ask you a very simple & straight forward question.. what price would the best horse faugheen has beaten be in tomorrows champion market? around 33's at shortest i reckon but again we're back to the being visually impressive scenario & unless your visually impared you would have to say hes been very impressive. my issue with him is i dont think 2m is his best trip, he can get away with it quality horses always will but at championship pace its a different ball game & he goes against some real battle hardened sorts here. add into that his best piece of form is arguably in last seasons neptune (over 2m 5f) where the runner up has yet to reappear the third has again yet to come out & the fourth horse has since managed a mind blowing second place off a mark of 141 in a novices handicap chase... not exactly earth shattering form and even his most ardent supporters have to agree with that. then theres the record of christmas hurdle winners in the champion, certainly not great by any stretch of the imagination and all of a sudden the case against him is growing. i know a few bookies that have the new one as a big loser in there books and thats a tough call now for me i must admit. last years winner jezki i'd of been all over if geraghty was on board & maybe switched the headgear around & dropped a pair of blinkers on him as the first time hood worked a treat in last years race & horses can get used to them. last years favourite hurricane fly & twice winner of the race in the past in 2011 & 2013 is quite literally an enigma & would bring the house down if he actually got home in front & when you consider the only time hes been out of the first three is when fourth in last years champion it just goes to show how strong a race this is. the old boy will get found out i'm sure but if there is a downpour of biblical proportions i wouldn't discount him running a place. all told its a difficult race for e/w betting with the three main protagonists all under 5/1 in the market so i'll just lay faugheen for the sweep..let battle commence!!!
4.00 cheltenham Mares hurdle 2m 4f (Grade 1)
i'm dubious as to how good a run annie's was in last years world hurdle but back against her own sex its hard to see past her. she has had an injury though & i'd be a layer rather than a backer. the one thing annie does do though is open up a bit of e/w value & i'd be tempted to have a small e/w play on the bottom mare the pirates queen. shes looked far better since stepped up in trip & theres a few here that have close form lines including bitofapuzzle & caroles spirit but again i liked the way this one battled to the line last time.
well my day revolves around getting the big four beat, douvan being the main one followed by faugheen & if i can get them beat then it will be pound seat johnny on day one & i'll take that. i'll play a small e/w patent on the following & see if the gods are looking down on me..
qewy 1.30 @ 12/1 bet365
three kingdoms 2.05 @ 25/1 bet365
the pirates queen 4.00 @ 20/1 bet365
please remember these are just my thoughts & my thoughts alone on tomorrows racing i'm not recommending you follow me or back/lay anything i've stated. you are all grown men/women & are more than capable of making your own decisions.
regards
ian
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