Wednesday 15 April 2015

newmarket day two

not a bad day on the blog today getting the o'brien fav beat & also osaila winning at 4/1 meant a profitable day. three G3 races at HQ tomorrow & tidy stuff to be fair so hopefully we can give you a few pointers.


4.05 newmarket 1m craven stakes G3

classic trials come thick & fast over the next couple of weeks & this looks a half decent race. the top horse kool kompany well connections of that whoever the kool kompany partnership is must be sweating on the big money they paid for this fella, in fact previous connections take a bow as you knew! i'm not a fan of the sire & he throws up doubtful stayers & the money that this exchanged hands for considering at the time he was a winner of a weak G2 contest is baffling to me. in fact it will be the ultimate piss take when the middleham park runner finishes in front of it & does it out of some prize money! aces could be a player depending on how hes progressed over the winter whilst moheet beat nothing on debut (calling them trees would be unfair to trees!) war envoy gets a BHA rating of 111 yet has only won a maiden & war fronts another sire who i have issues with stamina wise so i've a line put through him. nafaqa on the other hand beat subsequent G2 winner toocoolforschool in a listed contest before being outpointed himself in a G2 by subsequent racing post trophy winner elm park so the form is rock solid. he'll bounce off this ground & with what is arguably the best form in the book should take all the beating here.


4.40 newmarket 1m 1f  earl of sefton stakes G3

another cracking little contest this one & it looks to me a straight shoot out between french navy & grandeur.educate looks a handicapper maybe a listed contender at best but he'll need to find improvement at the age of six which is unlikely. glory awaits could go better on the firmer ground but he carries a 5lb penalty for winning a mickey mouse G2 race in outer mongolia or somewhere like that & the form equates to about a C3 conditions race in this country so you have to feel he'll struggle in the grade. if you take arods run in the dante literally he'd have to be in the mix but his fourth in the derby is a bit dodgy as he ran on past beaten horses & if you look in behind him that day there are horses like red galileo (been dropped into conditions grade since & still cant win) true story (listed race winner at best) & fascinating rock (clearly didnt stay) so the form is dubious to say the least. since then hes won a three runner race at leicester that i probably could of won then beat just the pacemaker home in the juddmonte, doesn't help that hes with a trainer that cant train ivy up a wall either & i couldnt have him here.mondialiste could be anything but the ground may be a bit on the quick side for him looking at his french form. the same comments have to apply to french navy as well so our selection has to be grandeur who with solid form in the book & will relish the surface the G1 winner over in the states is taken to show his class here.

we would go for..

nafaqa 4.05 & grandeur 4.40 level stakes win bets & a smaller stake win double.

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regards
teamform

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