A cracking card for the first day of newmarkets meet with a couple of listed races & a group 3 contest. the turf season really starts to get going now the nationals out the way & this meeting is always a good one to have the notebook handy and ideally you'd want to be paddock side on days like this but unfortunately we cant have everything. the one thing i will say though is with most of the races confined to 3yo's an air of caution needs to be taken as if a horse hasn't trained on from two to three then it won't win another race it really is as simple as that. i've seen some horses have decent 2yo careers then not be able to win a claimer, either they just don't progress physically or sometimes mentally but either way before putting strong money down you'd either want an in at a stable & know it was going well or for it to have had at least a decent run as a 3yo in the bag.
here's our thoughts anyway..
2.55 newmarket 6f conditions race
i think theres alot of horses in this with false official ratings to start with as all the horses rated in triple figures all ran in sales races last term & whilst there competitive theres an awful lot of dead wood in them at times & its interesting to note that the horse which seems to hold all the form lines secret brief of godolphins finished last when stepped out of sales race company & into group class (admittedly a G1 though) which tells me the formmay well not be all that. the horse i'd want to take on would be the forecast favourite of ballydoyle's & how he gets a rating of 106 i have no idea. he was behind both bossy guest & ballymore castle here at newmarket back in october & its even more of a mystery how he's favourite as well. the only real thing he does have going for him is a fitness edge over his rivals but i can't see them being left that short of work they won't be able to do themselves justice & the facts are he's had two stabs at this rowley mile course & was beaten ten lengths on the first attempt & was then last of six not beating a rival home in the middle park so it could well be that he either doesn'y like newmarket or just may not like travelling. theres not even alot to take from his recent maiden victory with the third horse being beaten in a weak maiden & the fourth horse home has been beaten off a mark off 74 in a handicap since so he would only have had to run to around 80 to win his maiden, at least 15lb below what will be needed to win this so a big step up is required. the problem with laying a horse is you have to have something to beat it & the sales race form apart i think this could go to the filly at the bottom with the weight allowance. she struggled in the lowther but that race is littered with pattern races winners & looks strong G2 form, some way above what would be required to win this. she also had a couple of decent performers in behind including a subsequent winner when second at salisbury & i may be tempted to lay the fav & back the filly but leave it so if the fav is beaten its a winning race for me.
3.30 newmarket 6f free handicap (listed)
a race that could well get tactical & the favourite is priced up more on what the horse he beat has done since taking the G3 acomb stakes & then running third in a G1 over in ireland but he treated him like a petulant child that day & just brushed him aside so could well be anything. jungle cat however could well get the run of the race on the front & if william buick can get the fractions right (which is debatable at times) he could kick on from the front & get these at it. there is always the chance the horse has been "godolphinised" with the switch from mark johnstons to charlie appleby but that seems to happen more when they send them over to meydan for whatever reason but alot of horses are never the same again. if you were desperate for a bet then maybe a small e/w on jacobs cats & possibly look at backing him in the without fav market but i'd want some value as theres as much chance of buick setting the wrong fractions & him tailing off but he did look a resolute type last year & surely even godolphin cant have put petrol in a diesel engine which they tend to have a habit of doing.
4.05 newmarket 7f nell gwyn stakes (Group 3)
dear lord 3yo fillies & not one of them has had a run as a 3yo!! we really are in bandit country here the two i have it between though are hugo palmers new providence & the richard hannon trained osaila. both have wins in G3 company to there name & only muraaqaba can boast the same so theres plenty in here with something to prove least of all the gosden filly lady correspondent who with an official rating of 77 looks to be up against it & whilst the second horse from its maiden landed a weak maiden the third horse has been beat twice since in the same grade & the next best perromance from the also rans that day is a fourth place in a wolverhampton handicap off a mark of 59 so the OR of 77 is generous in fact!! obviously theres always the chance that she will improve massively from that run bur she will need to..to the tune of around two stone!! personally i think osaila has the strongest form in the book with that third in the breeders cup a stand out but the stable form of hannons this past week has been sketchy to say the least which whilst off putting i dont think is alot to worry about but i'd be happier to see them have a winner. hugo palmers filly beat marsh hawk at salisbury with no excuses for the hannon runner that day so i see no reason why thats shorter in the betting apart from its connections (hughes rides). the godolphin filly beautiful romance had an eye catching debut but i've a feeling time will tell that she beat trees that day as theres nothing that has come out of the race with any significance so far. i'm tempted to stick with the C&D form of osaila & whilst not the most original selection she has the form in the book which is hard to go against.
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