Evening sportsfans!! well back down to earth with a bang today i'm afraid.. although the ride given to our nap has to be questioned considering he likes to race prominently from stall 3 he was never even put in the race at anytime & the moment the stalls opened it was game over to be honest & considering it was very heavily backed all day & then 10 minutes prior to the off it had almost doubled in price..i'll leave the conspiracy theorists with that one & i'm certainly not going to bemoan a bit of bad luck considering the week we've had.hopefully tomorrow can see a return to winning ways..
2pts e/w LE TOREADOR 4.50 LINGFIELD (nap) 12/1 pp
kevin ryans grand old campaigner has been campaigned in claimers on his last couple of runs but don't let that put you off for one minute.alot of claimers nowadays regularly have horses rated in the 80's running in them so it would be folly to turn your nose up at the form just because there C6 races as i can assure you there not competed in by C6 animals most of the time.this lads form is a prime example,the two horses that he finished behind where hamoody & drawnfromthepast,both 83 rated beasts.the problem is that once they get to a handicap mark in the mid 80's upwards there's just nowhere that they can go as very few are upto listed or group class & there to high for handicaps that they can be competitive in so unless they can pick up a little "conditions" race somewhere there shafted,its either drop into sellers/claimers or carry lumps of weight in handicaps waiting for there mark to fall which is pretty much whats happened to this fella.by running him in claimers they've kept him interested & theres nothing worse for a horses confidence than getting beaten miles time after time as they just lose interest & then its very hard to get them back again.after some shrewd placing he now finds himself 2lb below his previous winning mark & more importantly 3lb below his last C&D winning mark.now remember what i said about keeping horses interested well the ryan stable are past masters at it & little things can make all the difference as horses simply get used to things & when something changes it makes them think a bit.now you're going to have to stay with me now as this is where it gets complicated but i'll try & explain it the best i can.. on the 24/5/08 he was tried in a tongue strap for the first time & ran the best race of his career up to that point & then rattled of a quick hat-trick all with the tongue tie on.this was followed by three defeats but he wasn't disgraced by any means,at which point they dispensed with the strap,he then ran three very creditable races before finishing 12th of 13 at york,beaten 9l,probably the worse race of his career upto that point.so what do they do... reach for the strap & bang! in he goes!! he then gets used to the strap after a few runs again so they try the cheekpieces,one run in & bang! in he goes again!! he then had quiet a few runs with the cheekpiece & tongue strap combo then on 26/2/2011 they drop the strap again... and bang!! in he goes... are you seeing a pattern?? 3/6/2011 they try him in blinkers & to be fair it would of been a herculian effort to win a C3 off that mark but on his next run they ditch the blinds,reinstate the strap & pieces & stone the crows in he goes again!! :-)) he then gets used to the old combo like a pair of old slippers so on the 29/11/2011 they re-apply the blinkers & he runs a blinder just getting touched off by deerslayer who recently scored at belmont park after being sold to run in the states.then on the 27/12/2011 they dropped the tongue strap again...you guessed it,in he went!!! :-) after a couple of mediocre runs the strap was reapplied on the 29/6/2012 and.. well this is getting boring now but bang! in he goes again!! now since that run he's ran with the cheekpieces & tongue tie... until 22/2/2013 when they dropped the tongue tie.... and i'll let you know the outcome tomorrow!!! :))))))
1pt e/w HECTORS CHOICE 3.50 KEMPTON (nb) 40/1 stanjames
for some reason this lad has been completly overlooked in the betting & represents massive value in my opinion.he finished second here last year off a higher mark & gets a weight pull with nacarat & more importantly he's got 3 years on that rival who at the age of 12 must surely have run his best races.following that second last year he went to the festival but blundered his chance away then got back on track winning a G2 handicap off a pound lower than he goes off today.he then had some niggling problems throughout the latter part of last year & a recent spin over hurdles will have put him spot on for this & at massive odds is a strong e/w fancy.
a bit of a longwinded effort but i think its important to let people know the reasoning behind my selections & hopefully you all kept up & seen what i was getting at,basically when something changes it sparks this fella into life & hopefully the pattern will continue tomorrow.owing to the late finish at wolverhampton i have only managed to cover the lingfield card upto now but i will add my other selections in the morning before 10am.many thanks for taking the time to read my blog & as always i wish you the best of luck with whatever you decide for your money tomorrow & happy punting!!
regards
ian
2pts e/w LE TOREADOR 4.50 LINGFIELD (nap) 12/1 pp
kevin ryans grand old campaigner has been campaigned in claimers on his last couple of runs but don't let that put you off for one minute.alot of claimers nowadays regularly have horses rated in the 80's running in them so it would be folly to turn your nose up at the form just because there C6 races as i can assure you there not competed in by C6 animals most of the time.this lads form is a prime example,the two horses that he finished behind where hamoody & drawnfromthepast,both 83 rated beasts.the problem is that once they get to a handicap mark in the mid 80's upwards there's just nowhere that they can go as very few are upto listed or group class & there to high for handicaps that they can be competitive in so unless they can pick up a little "conditions" race somewhere there shafted,its either drop into sellers/claimers or carry lumps of weight in handicaps waiting for there mark to fall which is pretty much whats happened to this fella.by running him in claimers they've kept him interested & theres nothing worse for a horses confidence than getting beaten miles time after time as they just lose interest & then its very hard to get them back again.after some shrewd placing he now finds himself 2lb below his previous winning mark & more importantly 3lb below his last C&D winning mark.now remember what i said about keeping horses interested well the ryan stable are past masters at it & little things can make all the difference as horses simply get used to things & when something changes it makes them think a bit.now you're going to have to stay with me now as this is where it gets complicated but i'll try & explain it the best i can.. on the 24/5/08 he was tried in a tongue strap for the first time & ran the best race of his career up to that point & then rattled of a quick hat-trick all with the tongue tie on.this was followed by three defeats but he wasn't disgraced by any means,at which point they dispensed with the strap,he then ran three very creditable races before finishing 12th of 13 at york,beaten 9l,probably the worse race of his career upto that point.so what do they do... reach for the strap & bang! in he goes!! he then gets used to the strap after a few runs again so they try the cheekpieces,one run in & bang! in he goes again!! he then had quiet a few runs with the cheekpiece & tongue strap combo then on 26/2/2011 they drop the strap again... and bang!! in he goes... are you seeing a pattern?? 3/6/2011 they try him in blinkers & to be fair it would of been a herculian effort to win a C3 off that mark but on his next run they ditch the blinds,reinstate the strap & pieces & stone the crows in he goes again!! :-)) he then gets used to the old combo like a pair of old slippers so on the 29/11/2011 they re-apply the blinkers & he runs a blinder just getting touched off by deerslayer who recently scored at belmont park after being sold to run in the states.then on the 27/12/2011 they dropped the tongue strap again...you guessed it,in he went!!! :-) after a couple of mediocre runs the strap was reapplied on the 29/6/2012 and.. well this is getting boring now but bang! in he goes again!! now since that run he's ran with the cheekpieces & tongue tie... until 22/2/2013 when they dropped the tongue tie.... and i'll let you know the outcome tomorrow!!! :))))))
1pt e/w HECTORS CHOICE 3.50 KEMPTON (nb) 40/1 stanjames
for some reason this lad has been completly overlooked in the betting & represents massive value in my opinion.he finished second here last year off a higher mark & gets a weight pull with nacarat & more importantly he's got 3 years on that rival who at the age of 12 must surely have run his best races.following that second last year he went to the festival but blundered his chance away then got back on track winning a G2 handicap off a pound lower than he goes off today.he then had some niggling problems throughout the latter part of last year & a recent spin over hurdles will have put him spot on for this & at massive odds is a strong e/w fancy.
a bit of a longwinded effort but i think its important to let people know the reasoning behind my selections & hopefully you all kept up & seen what i was getting at,basically when something changes it sparks this fella into life & hopefully the pattern will continue tomorrow.owing to the late finish at wolverhampton i have only managed to cover the lingfield card upto now but i will add my other selections in the morning before 10am.many thanks for taking the time to read my blog & as always i wish you the best of luck with whatever you decide for your money tomorrow & happy punting!!
regards
ian
No comments:
Post a Comment