Evening sportsfans!! well another festival is upon us with aintree kicking off tomorrow & it looks an absolute feast to be honest.i've decided to cover two races from the first day & hopefully we can find some value..
3.05 AINTREE 2m4f hurdle (grade 1)
firstly i have to point out that 99% of horses that run at the cheltenham festival are absolutly trained to the minute then how they come out of that race then depends where they go next,wether it be liverpool,punchestown or are put away for the summer.for a trainer to get his horse to liverpool with the same levels that they ran at cheltenham is a herculian task & many fail to be honest.this i feel may be the case for tomorrows favourite THE NEW ONE.not only will he have to come here bang on his A-game i think he'll have to improve a good 5-6lbs on that run if i'm honest as this race will be a whole different ball game than the novice company he's been contesting & i'll be laying this one heavy.the nicholls team reach for the headgear on zarkander which is never a positive sign for me & on his champion hurdle running he has it to do. countrywide flame i dont think will stay which brings us to the henderson trained GRANDOUET who came down in the champion when travelling ominously well & he must have a live chance with barry geraghty choosing him over dual winner of the race OSCAR WHISKEY who will be far happier back over this trip & is not easily discounted.my play on the race however will be e/w on the mullins raider THOUSAND STARS.you can forget his last run as he clearly wasn't right & he comes into the race a fresh horse after missing cheltenham.his two defeats to hurricane fly now read very well after his stablemate took the champion in such devastating fashion & i feel he may well have been targetted at the race.
LAY: the new one
BACK: thousand stars (e/w)
BACK: r/f/c grandouet/thousand stars
2.30 AINTREE 3m1f chase (grade 1)
a trappy contest with likely favourite SILVINIACO CONTI sure to be all the rage after falling in the gold cup when still in contention but wether he would of won or been placed i very much doubt but thats one of those unanswered questions that we'll never know i'm afraid.FIRST LIEUTENANT comes here on the back of his second in the ryanair at the cheltenham festival but my he did have a hard race that day & hes starting to look a tad one paced at the end of his races to me if i'm honest.that may well turn out to be the best form on offer here though depending on how cue card runs against the so far imperious sprinter scare & flemenstar on friday.last years race threw up a 50/1 shock & it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if the same thing happened again as all the principals have to show they've recovered from there cheltenham exertions.the only horse that comes into the race fresh is the irish raider QUITO DE LA ROQUE & hes going to be our play in the race.he was behind WAYWARD PRINCE over C&D in december of last year but was trying to give that one 10lb that day & off levels he can turn the tables.his run in the lexus chase does worry me but it was far to bad to be true & a chance is taken that he'll outstay this lot.
LAY: FIRST LIEUTENANT
BACK: QUITO DE LA ROQUE (e/w)
BACK: r/f/c QUITO DE LA ROQUE/WAYWARD PRINCE
small stakes on the r/f/c's as they should pay handsomely but the lays i'm particularly strong on & they will be my main plays of the day.many thanks for taking the time to read my blog & as always i wish you the best of luck with whatever you decide for your money tomorrow & happy punting!! :-)
regards
ian
3.05 AINTREE 2m4f hurdle (grade 1)
firstly i have to point out that 99% of horses that run at the cheltenham festival are absolutly trained to the minute then how they come out of that race then depends where they go next,wether it be liverpool,punchestown or are put away for the summer.for a trainer to get his horse to liverpool with the same levels that they ran at cheltenham is a herculian task & many fail to be honest.this i feel may be the case for tomorrows favourite THE NEW ONE.not only will he have to come here bang on his A-game i think he'll have to improve a good 5-6lbs on that run if i'm honest as this race will be a whole different ball game than the novice company he's been contesting & i'll be laying this one heavy.the nicholls team reach for the headgear on zarkander which is never a positive sign for me & on his champion hurdle running he has it to do. countrywide flame i dont think will stay which brings us to the henderson trained GRANDOUET who came down in the champion when travelling ominously well & he must have a live chance with barry geraghty choosing him over dual winner of the race OSCAR WHISKEY who will be far happier back over this trip & is not easily discounted.my play on the race however will be e/w on the mullins raider THOUSAND STARS.you can forget his last run as he clearly wasn't right & he comes into the race a fresh horse after missing cheltenham.his two defeats to hurricane fly now read very well after his stablemate took the champion in such devastating fashion & i feel he may well have been targetted at the race.
LAY: the new one
BACK: thousand stars (e/w)
BACK: r/f/c grandouet/thousand stars
2.30 AINTREE 3m1f chase (grade 1)
a trappy contest with likely favourite SILVINIACO CONTI sure to be all the rage after falling in the gold cup when still in contention but wether he would of won or been placed i very much doubt but thats one of those unanswered questions that we'll never know i'm afraid.FIRST LIEUTENANT comes here on the back of his second in the ryanair at the cheltenham festival but my he did have a hard race that day & hes starting to look a tad one paced at the end of his races to me if i'm honest.that may well turn out to be the best form on offer here though depending on how cue card runs against the so far imperious sprinter scare & flemenstar on friday.last years race threw up a 50/1 shock & it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if the same thing happened again as all the principals have to show they've recovered from there cheltenham exertions.the only horse that comes into the race fresh is the irish raider QUITO DE LA ROQUE & hes going to be our play in the race.he was behind WAYWARD PRINCE over C&D in december of last year but was trying to give that one 10lb that day & off levels he can turn the tables.his run in the lexus chase does worry me but it was far to bad to be true & a chance is taken that he'll outstay this lot.
LAY: FIRST LIEUTENANT
BACK: QUITO DE LA ROQUE (e/w)
BACK: r/f/c QUITO DE LA ROQUE/WAYWARD PRINCE
small stakes on the r/f/c's as they should pay handsomely but the lays i'm particularly strong on & they will be my main plays of the day.many thanks for taking the time to read my blog & as always i wish you the best of luck with whatever you decide for your money tomorrow & happy punting!! :-)
regards
ian
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